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    Wyświetlanie 1-9 z 9
    Tytuł:
    Wave 2 of the Multilingual Eye-Movement Corpus (MECO) : new text reading data across languages
    Autorzy:
    Bao, Yaqian Borogjoon
    Schroeder, Sascha
    Mihajlović, Nataša
    Bolliger, Lena S.
    Popović Stijačić, Milica
    Smirnova, Anna
    Lee, Charlotte E.
    Filipović Đurđević, Dušica
    Srivastava, Priyanka
    Kharlamov, Nik
    Lee, Jun Ren
    Brasser, Jan
    Reich, David R.
    Wu, Denise H.
    Zdravković, Sunčica
    Rimzhim, Anurag
    Acartürk, Cengiz
    Vieira, João M. M.
    Verma, Ark
    Leite, Marina P. T.
    Santana-Covarrubias, Andrea
    Sekerina, Irina
    Kristjánsson, Árni
    Rothe-Neves, Rui
    Mancini, Simona
    Siegelman, Noam
    Sigurdardottir, Heida M.
    Kuperman, Victor
    Teixeira, Elisangela N.
    Ugrinic, Ivana
    Orekhova, Miloslava
    Vakulya, Karolina
    Sá, Thais M. M.
    Zhuo, Junjing
    Campos-Rojas, César
    Goldina, Sofya
    Ziaka, Laoura
    Jäger, Lena A.
    Protopapas, Athanassios
    Agrawal, Niket
    Drieghe, Denis
    Knudsen, Hanne B. S.
    Khare, Anurag
    Mišić, Ksenija
    Parshina, Olga
    Ibáñez Orellana, Romualdo
    Xue, Jin
    Usal, Kerem Alp
    Jóhannesson, Ómar I.
    Opis:
    This paper reports the Wave 2 expansion of the Multilingual Eye-Movement Corpus (MECO), a collaborative multi-lab project collecting eye-tracking data on text reading in a variety of languages. The present expansion comes with new eye-tracking data of N = 654 from 13 languages, collected in 16 labs over 15 countries, including in several languages that have little to no representation in current eye-tracking studies on reading. MECO also contains demographic, language use, and other individual differences data. This paper makes available the first-language reading data of MECO Wave 2 and incorporates reliability estimates of all tests at the participant and item level, as well as other methods of data validation. It also reports the descriptive statistics on all languages, including comparisons with prior similar data, and outlines directions for potential reuse.
    Dostawca treści:
    Repozytorium Uniwersytetu Jagiellońskiego
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    New data on text reading in English as a second language
    Autorzy:
    Schroeder, Sascha
    Mihajlović, Nataša
    Bolliger, Lena S.
    Popović Stijačić, Milica
    Smirnova, Anna
    Lee, Charlotte E.
    Orellana, Romualdo Ibáñez
    Alexandre, Dominick M.
    Gadelha de Freitas, Luiz Vinicius
    Kharlamov, Nik
    Santana Covarrubias, Andrea
    Lee, Jun Ren
    Srivastava, Priyanka
    Brasser, Jan
    Reich, David R.
    Wu, Denise H.
    Zdravković, Sunčica
    Đurđević, Dušica Filipović
    Acartürk, Cengiz
    Rimzhim, Anurag
    Vieira, João M. M.
    Verma, Ark
    Leite, Marina P. T.
    Sekerina, Irina
    Kristjánsson, Árni
    Kuperman, Victor
    Mancini, Simona
    Rothe-Neves, Rui
    Sigurdardottir, Heida M.
    Siegelman, Noam
    Teixeira, Elisangela N.
    Ugrinic, Ivana
    Orekhova, Miloslava
    Vakulya, Karolina
    Sá, Thais M. M.
    Zhuo, Junjing
    Campos-Rojas, César
    Goldina, Sofya
    Ziaka, Laoura
    Jäger, Lena A.
    Protopapas, Athanassios
    Agrawal, Niket
    Drieghe, Denis
    Knudsen, Hanne B. S.
    Khare, Anurag
    Mišić, Ksenija
    Parshina, Olga
    Xue, Jin
    Usal, Kerem Alp
    Jóhannesson, Ómar I.
    Opis:
    This paper reports an expansion of the English as a second language (L2) component of the Multilingual Eye Movement Corpus (MECO L2), an international database of eye movements during text reading. While the previous Wave 1 of the MECO project (Kuperman et al., 2023) contained English as a L2 reading data from readers with 12 different first language (L1) backgrounds, the newly collected dataset adds eye-tracking data on English text reading from 13 distinct L1 backgrounds as well as participants’ scores on component skills of English proficiency and information about their demographics and language background and use. The paper reports reliability estimates, descriptive statistics, and correlational analyses as means to validate the expansion dataset. Consistent with prior literature and the MECO Wave 1, trends in the MECO Wave 2 data include a weak correlation between reading comprehension and oculomotor measures of reading fluency and a greater L1-L2 contrast in reading fluency than reading comprehension. Jointly with Wave 1, the MECO project includes English reading data from more than 1,200 readers representing a diversity of native writing systems (logographic, abjad, abugida, and alphabetic) and 19 distinct L1 backgrounds. We provide multiple pointers to new venues of how L2 reading researchers can mine this rich publicly available dataset.
    Dostawca treści:
    Repozytorium Uniwersytetu Jagiellońskiego
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    MultiplEYE : creating a multilingual eye-tracking-while-reading corpus
    Autorzy:
    Müller, Marie-Luise
    Došen, Ana
    Chromý, Jan
    Boznou, Antonia
    Cergol, Kristina
    Haveriku, Alba
    Lion, Ella
    Motiejūnienė, Jurgita
    Pungă, Loredana
    Jakobi, Deborah Noemie
    Stegenwallner-Schütz, Maja
    Jensen de López, Kristine M
    Rot, Špela
    Frank, Stefan
    Kharlamov, Nik
    Harezlak, Katarzyna
    Beinborn, Lisa
    Kasprowski, Pawel
    Kaspere, Ramune
    Ansari, Mohd Faizan
    Çerpja, Adelina
    Varlokosta, Spyridoula
    Nedergård, Johanne Sofie Krog
    Veríssimo, João
    Tschirner, Chiara
    Ding, Cui
    Preininger, Mikuláš
    Gramatikov, Sasho
    Łockiewicz, Marta
    Pavlinusic Vilus, Eva
    Reich, David Robert
    Demberg, Vera
    Fajardo, Dr. Inmaculada
    Hofmann, Jana Mara
    Škrjanec, Iza
    Gomes, Jéssica
    Luegi, Paula
    Klimek-Jankowska, Dorota
    Bradshaw, Leah
    Berzak, Yevgeni
    Kosutar, Sara
    Kamal, Muhammad M.
    Jäger, Lena A.
    Nasir, Jamal A.
    Solé-Casals, Jordi
    Strati, Ekaterina
    Kote, Nelda
    Mínguez-López, Xavier
    Krejtz, Izabela
    Svoboda, Igor
    Deniz, Nazik Dinçtopal
    Sekerina, Irina A.
    Vulchanova, Mila
    Krakowczyk, Daniel G.
    Giménez-Salvador, Mariola
    Bondar, Anna
    Çepani, Anila
    Bautista, Ana
    Palmovic, Marijan
    Filip, Maroš
    Freibergs, Zigmunds
    Özkan, Ayşegül
    Janeiro, Andreia
    Krosness, Thyra
    Acartürk, Cengiz
    Chirino, Dalí
    Hasenäcker, Jana
    Säuberli, Andreas
    Matić Škorić, Ana
    Hollenstein, Nora
    Lõo, Kaidi
    Trandafili, Evis
    Soliva, Not Battesta
    Kędzierska, Hanna
    B. Søndergaard Knudsen, Hanne
    Opis:
    Eye-tracking-while-reading data provide valuable insights across multiple disciplines, including psychology, linguistics, natural language processing, education, and human-computer interaction. Despite its potential, the availability of large, high-quality, multilingual datasets remains limited, hindering both foundational reading research and advancements in applications. The MultiplEYE project addresses this gap by establishing a large-scale, international eye-tracking data collection initiative. It aims to create a multilingual dataset of eye movements recorded during natural reading, balancing linguistic diversity, while ensuring methodological consistency for reliable cross-linguistic comparisons. The dataset spans numerous languages and follows strict procedural, documentation, and data pre-processing standards to enhance eye-tracking data transparency and reproducibility. A novel data-sharing framework, integrated with data quality reports, allows for selective data filtering based on research needs. Researchers and labs worldwide are invited to join the initiative. By establishing and promoting standardized practices and open data sharing, MultiplEYE facilitates interdisciplinary research and advances reading research and gaze-augmented applications.
    Dostawca treści:
    Repozytorium Uniwersytetu Jagiellońskiego
    Inne
    Tytuł:
    The Beaker phenomenon and the genomic transformation of northwest Europe
    Autorzy:
    Booth, Thomas
    Fowler, Chris
    Büster, Lindsey
    Haak, Wolfgang
    Lemercier, Olivier
    Haduch, Elżbieta
    Carver, Sophie
    Brace, Selina
    Haber-Uriarte, María
    Risch, Roberto
    Bánffy, Eszter
    Allen, Tim
    Mende, Balázs Gusztáv
    Mortimer, Richard
    Bonsall, Laura
    Fernandes, Daniel
    Miguel, Jorge Vega
    Price, T. Douglas
    Prieto, Pilar
    Bonsall, Clive
    García, Roberto Menduiña
    Ernée, Michal
    Craig, Oliver E.
    Thomas, Mark G.
    Cook, Gordon T.
    Altena, Eveline
    Farré, Joan Francès
    Dani, János
    Liesau, Corina
    Vergnaud, Luc
    Valenti, Antonella
    Soriano, Ignacio
    Waddington, Clive
    Dobeš, Miroslav
    Hałuszko, Agata
    Mackiewicz, Maksym
    Reich, David
    Zanini, Alessandro
    Lalueza-Fox, Carles
    Mallick, Swapan
    Endrődi, Anna
    Brittain, Marcus
    Olmo, Virginia Galera
    Stockhammer, Philipp W.
    Gazenbeek, Michiel
    Guerra-Doce, Elisa
    Luke, Mike
    Massy, Ken
    Higham, Thomas
    Köhler, Kitti
    Kristiansen, Kristian
    Harney, Eadaoin
    Martínez, César Heras
    Blasco, Concepción
    Furmanek, Mirosław
    Desideri, Jocelyne
    Diekmann, Yoan
    Szécsényi-Nagy, Anna
    Leach, Stephany
    Alt, Kurt Werner
    Włodarczak, Piotr
    McKinley, Jacqueline I.
    Kuchařík, Milan
    Sjögren, Karl-Göran
    McSweeney, Kathleen
    Billoin, David
    Denaire, Anthony
    Rapiński, Artur
    Evans, Christopher
    Besse, Marie
    de Knijff, Peter
    Lillios, Katina T.
    Serralongue, Joël
    Knowles, Timothy
    Cheronet, Olivia
    Keating, Denise
    Dodwell, Natasha
    Hey, Gill
    Allentoft, Morten E.
    Patay, Róbert
    Fernández, Raúl Flores
    Barnes, Ian
    Zilhão, João
    Carnieri, Emiliano
    Rohland, Nadin
    Brown, Fraser
    Kulcsár, Gabriella
    Herrero-Corral, Ana-Mercedes
    Candilio, Francesca
    Tusa, Sebastiano
    Neil, Benjamin
    Sheridan, Alison
    Modi, Alessandra
    Rey, Pierre-Jérôme
    Michel, Megan
    Kennett, Douglas J.
    Mittnik, Alissa
    Broomandkhoshbacht, Nasreen
    Stewardson, Kristin
    Krause, Johannes
    Majó, Tona
    Jowett, Nick
    Rojo Guerra, Manuel A.
    Delibes, Germán
    Schmitt, Aurore
    Hajdu, Tamás
    Oppenheimer, Jonas
    Bernabò-Brea, Maria
    Pfrengle, Saskia
    Cardoso, João Luís
    Ramírez, Ana Bastida
    Pinhasi, Ron
    Ríos, Patricia
    Hoole, Maya
    Szeniczey, Tamás
    Fokkens, Harry
    Olalde, Iñigo
    Kiss, Viktória
    Maurandi, Joaquín Lomba
    Harper, Thomas K.
    Velemínský, Petr
    Lefebvre, Arnaud
    Pearson, Michael Parker
    Lentini, Luigi
    Barclay, Alistair
    Lazaridis, Iosif
    Armit, Ian
    Dinwiddy, Kirsten Egging
    Bernert, Zsolt
    Patterson, Nick
    Lefranc, Philippe
    Smrčka, Václav
    Faltyskova, Zuzana
    Cunliffe, Barry
    Caramelli, David
    Ferry, Matthew
    Fernández, Azucena Avilés
    Pena, Rafael Garrido
    Silva, Ana Maria
    Heyd, Volker
    Navarro, Laura Castells
    Lipson, Mark
    Brücken, Günter
    Czene, András
    Dostawca treści:
    Repozytorium Uniwersytetu Jagiellońskiego
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Averages of holomorphic mappings and holomorphic retractions on convex hyperbolic domains
    Autorzy:
    Reich, Simeon
    Shoikhet, David
    Wydawca:
    Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Matematyczny PAN
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1218222.pdf  Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
    Opis:
    Let D be a hyperbolic convex domain in a complex Banach space. Let the mapping F ∈ Hol(D,D) be bounded on each subset strictly inside D, and have a nonempty fixed point set ℱ in D. We consider several methods for constructing retractions onto ℱ under local assumptions of ergodic type. Furthermore, we study the asymptotic behavior of the Cesàro averages of one-parameter semigroups generated by holomorphic mappings.
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Was the serine protease cathepsin G discovered by S. G. Hedin in 1903 in bovine spleen?
    Autorzy:
    Palesch, David
    Sieńczyk, Marcin
    Oleksyszyn, Jozef
    Reich, Michael
    Wieczerzak, Ewa
    Boehm, Bernhard
    Burster, Timo
    Tematy:
    spleen cells
    Hedin
    cathepsin
    proteases
    Pokaż więcej
    Wydawca:
    Polskie Towarzystwo Biochemiczne
    Powiązania:
    https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1039945.pdf  Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
    Opis:
    In the beginning of the 20th century, enzymes with proteolytic activity were classified as peptidases, Erepsin, and proteases. Among these, pepsin, trypsin, and autolytic enzymes were of the protease class. Spleen-derived proteases were poorly characterized until Sven Gustaf Hedin performed several digestion experiments with bovine spleen. He incubated minced bovine spleen under acidic or neutral conditions and characterized two active proteases; the results were published in 1903. The first protease was named α-protease and was active under neutral conditions. The second was named β-protease and was active under acidic conditions. We replicated Hedin's experiments according to his methods and found, by using activity-based probes to visualize proteases, that the historical α-protease is the present-day serine protease cathepsin G (CatG), which is known to be important in several immune processes, including antigen processing, chemotaxis, and activation of surface receptors. The β-protease, however, comprised different proteases including CatX, B, S, and D. We suggest that Hedin described CatG activity in bovine spleen over 100 years ago.
    Dostawca treści:
    Biblioteka Nauki
    Artykuł
    Tytuł:
    Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
    Autorzy:
    Reina, Borja
    Krupa, Bartosz
    Lasinio, Giovanna Jona
    Ullrich, Alexander
    Montero-Manso, Pablo
    Priesemann, Viola
    Bejar, Benjamin
    Bracher, Johannes
    Tucek, Vit
    Smid, Martin
    Perez Alvarez, Cesar
    Fuhrmann, Jan
    Kraus, David
    Rodiah, Isti
    Kraus, Andrea
    Nowosielski, Jedrzej
    Redlarski, Grzegorz
    Filinski, Maciej
    Kisielewski, Jan
    Michaud, Isaac
    Pennoni, Fulvia
    Gurung, Heidi
    Leithauser, Neele
    Venkatramanan, Srinivasan
    Lopez, Daniel
    Hurt, Benjamin
    Pribylova, Lenka
    Zibert, Janez
    Schneider, Johanna
    Stage, Steven
    Bartczuk, Rafal P
    Szczurek, Ewa
    Holger, Kirsten
    Hotz, Thomas
    Wattanachit, Nutcha
    Farcomeni, Alessio
    Lewis, Bryan
    Wang, Lijing
    Castro, Lauren
    Bodych, Marcin
    Dehning, Jonas
    Villanueva, Inmaculada
    Mohr, Sebastian
    Alaimo Di Loro, Pierfrancesco
    Parolini, Nicola
    Deuschel, Jannik
    Suchoski, Bradley
    Grah, Rok
    Giudici, Paolo
    Catala, Marti
    Budzinski, Jozef
    Alonso, Sergio
    Marathe, Madhav
    Morina, David
    Idzikowski, Radoslaw
    Sun, Tao
    Sherratt, Katharine
    Meinke, Jan H
    Kuhlmann, Alexander
    Walraven, Robert
    Abbott, Sam
    Saksham, Soni
    Porebski, Przemyslaw
    Zimmermann, Tom
    Bartolucci, Francesco
    Obozinski, Guillaume
    Gogolewski, Krzysztof
    Zielinski, Jakub
    Rakowski, Franciszek
    Pottier, Loic
    Tarantino, Barbara
    Moszyński, Antoni
    Gruson, Hugo
    Wang, Yijin
    Ardenghi, Giovanni
    Biecek, Przemyslaw
    Alvarez, Enric
    Funk, Sebastian
    Mingione, Marco
    Bock, Wolfgang
    Bosse, Nikos I
    Guzman- Merino, Miguel
    Dreger, Filip
    Ray, Evan L
    Wolffram, Daniel
    Aznarte, Jose L
    Burgard, Jan Pablo
    Barbarossa, Maria Vittoria
    Singh, David E
    Gambin, Anna
    Dimitris, Bertsimas
    Pabjan, Barbara
    Gruziel-Slomka, Magdalena
    Kheifetz, Yuri
    Divino, Fabio
    Zajicek, Milan
    Srivastava, Ajitesh
    Niehus, Rene
    Lovison, Gianfranco
    Adiga, Aniruddha
    Mohring, Jan
    Prats, Clara
    Johnson, Helen
    Krueger, Tyll
    Osthus, Dave
    Baccam, Prasith
    Prasse, Bastian
    Radwan, Maciej
    Semeniuk, Marcin
    Maruotti, Antonello
    Eclerova, Veronika
    Scholz, Markus
    Krymova, Ekaterina
    Trnka, Jan
    Thanou, Dorina
    Niedzielewski, Karol
    Reich, Nicholas G
    Meakin, Sophie R
    Wlazlo, Jaroslaw
    Sheldon, Daniel
    Ozanski, Tomasz
    Ziarelli, Giovanni
    Gibson, Graham
    Heyder, Stefan
    Rodloff, Arne
    Li, Michael Lingzhi
    Fairchild, Geoffrey
    Sandmann, Frank
    Lange, Berit
    Wydawca:
    eLife Sciences Publications Ltd.
    Cytata wydawnicza:
    Sherratt K, Gruson H, Grah R, Johnson H, Niehus R, Prasse B, Sandmann F, Deuschel J, Wolffram D, Abbott S, Ullrich A, Gibson G, Ray EL, Reich NG, Sheldon D, Wang Y, Wattanachit N, Wang L, Trnka J, Obozinski G, Sun T, Thanou D, Pottier L, Krymova E, Meinke JH, Barbarossa MV, Leithauser N, Mohring J, Schneider J, Wlazlo J, Fuhrmann J, Lange B, Rodiah I, Baccam P, Gurung H, Stage S, Suchoski B, Budzinski J, Walraven R, Villanueva I, Tucek V, Smid M, Zajicek M, Perez Alvarez C, Reina B, Bosse NI, Meakin SR, Castro L, Fairchild G, Michaud I, Osthus D, Alaimo Di Loro P, Maruotti A, Eclerova V, Kraus A, Kraus D, Pribylova L, Dimitris B, Li ML, Saksham S, Dehning J, Mohr S, Priesemann V, Redlarski G, Bejar B, Ardenghi G, Parolini N, Ziarelli G, Bock W, Heyder S, Hotz T, Singh DE, Guzman-Merino M, Aznarte JL, Morina D, Alonso S, Alvarez E, Lopez D, Prats C, Burgard JP, Rodloff A, Zimmermann T, Kuhlmann A, Zibert J, Pennoni F, Divino F, Catala M, Lovison G, Giudici P, Tarantino B, Bartolucci F, Jona Lasinio G, Mingione M, Farcomeni A, Srivastava A, Montero-Manso P, Adiga A, Hurt B, Lewis B, Marathe M, Porebski P, Venkatramanan S, Bartczuk RP, Dreger F, Gambin A, Gogolewski K, Gruziel-Slomka M, Krupa B, Moszyński A, Niedzielewski K, Nowosielski J, Radwan M, Rakowski F, Semeniuk M, Szczurek E, Zielinski J, Kisielewski J, Pabjan B, Holger K, Kheifetz Y, Scholz M, Przemyslaw B, Bodych M, Filinski M, Idzikowski R, Krueger T, Ozanski T, Bracher J, Funk S. Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations. Elife. 2023 Apr 21;12:e81916. doi: 10.7554/eLife.81916.
    Opis:
    Wellcome Trust (Grant number 221003/Z/20/Z) in collaboration with the Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office, United Kingdom. AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D- 0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH- 21- 501- 0141, VDH- 21- 501- 0143, VDH- 21- 501- 0147, VDH- 21- 501- 0145, VDH- 21- 501- 0146, VDH- 21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018- 095456-B- I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 (https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).
    Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
    Dostawca treści:
    Repozytorium Centrum Otwartej Nauki
    Artykuł
      Wyświetlanie 1-9 z 9

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