Temat: Bayesian approach - Prolib Integro

Skocz do pozycji: 1.

Tytuł:: BAYESIAN APPROACH TO THE PROCESS OF IDENTIFICATION OF THE DETERMINANTS OF INNOVATIVENESS
Autorzy:: Czyżewska, Marta
Mroczek, Teresa
Tematy:: Bayesian approach
determinants
innovativeness; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Wyższa Szkoła Informatyki i Zarządzania z siedzibą w Rzeszowie
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/599472.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: Bayesian belief networks are applied in determining the most important factors of the innovativeness level of national economies. The paper is divided into two parts. The first presentsthe basic theory of Bayesian networks whereas in the second, the belief networks have been generated by an inhouse developed computer system called BeliefSEEKER which was implemented to generate the determinants influencing the innovativeness level of national economies.Qualitative analysis of the generated belief networks provided a way to define a set of the most important dimensions influencing the innovativeness level of economies and then the indicators that form these dimensions. It has been proven that Bayesian networks are very effective methods for multidimensional analysis and forming conclusions and recommendations regarding the strength of each innovative determinant influencing the overall performance of a country’s economy.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 2.

Tytuł:: A holistic framework for conceptualising and describing risk
Autorzy:: Aven, T.
Tematy:: risk
probability
models
Bayesian approach; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Morski w Gdyni. Polskie Towarzystwo Bezpieczeństwa i Niezawodności
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2069545.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: A number of definitions and interpretations of the risk concept exist. Many of these are probability-based. In this paper we present and discuss a structure for characterising the definitions, which is founded on a clear distinction between (a) risk as a concept based on events, consequences and uncertainties; (b) risk as a modelled, quantitative concept; and (c) risk descriptions. The discussion leads to a holistic framework for conceptualising and assessing risk, which is based on risk defined by (a), and the probability-based definitions of risk can be viewed as related model parameters and/or risk descriptions. Two ways of detailing the framework are outlined: the relative frequency-based approach and the Bayesian approach. The Framework provides clear guidance on how to think when conceptualising and assessing risk in practice. Such guidance is strongly needed for the risk analysis discipline which is young and characterised by many different risk perspectives and approaches.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 3.

Tytuł:: The Effect of CAP Subsidies on the Technical Efficiency of Polish Dairy Farms
Autorzy:: Marzec, Jerzy
Pisulewski, Andrzej
Tematy:: stochastic frontier analysis
dairy farms
Bayesian approach
panel data; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2076428.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: The main aim of this paper is to analyse the effect of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) subsidies on technical efficiency of Polish dairy farms. We have distinguished several types of subsidies and provided an analysis to find out which types are most likely to engender systematic differences in technical efficiency. A balanced panel of microeconomic data on Polish dairy farms over an eight-year period (between 2004 and 2011), taken from the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN), is used. The translog production function is estimated by employing the Bayesian approach. The empirical results show that the elasticity of production with respect to livestock is the highest, whereas with respect to feed is the lowest. The mean technical efficiency in the covered period is 83%. The research reveals the negative effect of subsidies on technical efficiency.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 4.

Tytuł:: Modelling the occupational and educational choices of young people in Poland using Bayesian multinomial logit models
Autorzy:: Grzenda, Wioletta
Tematy:: young people
labour market
education
multinomial logit model
Bayesian approach; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1827554.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: Binomial logit models are commonly used in the analysis of the situation of respondents on the labour market. Consequently, in most cases researchers consider two states: of being unemployed and employed or economically inactive and active. This paper focuses on the situation of young people aged 18 to 29 on the labour market in Poland. A major part of the people who comprise the studied group are still in education or combine education with work. Therefore, the participants of the research were divided into the following groups: the employed and not learning, those combining education with work, the unemployed, learners/students only, and those economically inactive and not at school. The model allowing an analysis which includes both the most common division into working and nonworking persons as well as the division proposed in this study is a nested logit model. This model has a hierarchical structure and is a special case of a multinomial logit model. In this paper, all models were estimated within the Bayesian approach. The findings show that continuing education by young people may result from their problems with finding a job; moreover, combining work with education is not the preferred form of professional activity. In addition, the study examines the inequalities observed on the Polish labour market.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 5.

Tytuł:: Bayesian graphical model based optimal decision-making for fault diagnosis of critical induction motors in industrial applications
Autorzy:: Lakehal, A.
Tematy:: maintenance plan
predictive actions
prioritization
critical asynchronous motor
Bayesian approach; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/200978.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: In an effort to achieve an optimal availability time of induction motors via fault probabilities reduction and improved prediction or diagnostic tools responsiveness, a conditional probabilistic approach was used. So, a Bayesian network (BN) has been developed in this paper. The objective will be to prioritize predictive and corrective maintenance actions based on the definition of the most probable fault elements and to see how they serve as a foundation for the decision framework. We have explored the causes of faults for an induction motor. The influence of different power ranges and the criticality of the electric induction motor are also discussed. With regard to the problem of induction motor faults monitoring and diagnostics, each technique developed in the literature concerns one or two faults. The model developed, through its unique structure, is valid for all faults and all situations. Application of the proposed approach to some machines shows promising results on the practical side. The model developed uses factual information (causes and effects) that is easy to identify, since it is best known to the operator. After that comes an investigation into the causal links and the definition of the a priori probabilities. The presented application of Bayesian networks is the first of its kind to predict faults of induction motors. Following the results of the inference obtained, prioritizations of the actions can be carried out.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 6.

Tytuł:: Comparing particulate matter dispersion in Thailand using the Bayesian Confidence Intervals for ratio of coefficients of variation
Autorzy:: Thangjai, Warisa
Niwitpong, Suparat
Tematy:: Bayesian approach
coefficient of variation
confidence interval
log-normal distribution
ratio; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1059045.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: Recently, harmful levels of air pollution have been detected in many provinces of Thailand. Particulate matter (PM) contains microscopic solids or liquid droplets that are so small that they can be inhaled and cause serious health problems. A high dispersion of PM is measured by a coefficient of variation of log-normal distribution. Since the log-normal distribution is often used to analyse environmental data such as hazardous dust particle levels and daily rainfall data. These data focus the statistical inference on the coefficient of variation. In this paper, we develop confidence interval estimation for the ratio of coefficients of variation of two log-normal distributions constructed using the Bayesian approach. These confidence intervals were then compared with the existing approaches: method of variance estimates recovery (MOVER), modified MOVER, and approximate fiducial approaches using their coverage probabilities and average lengths via Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation results show that the Bayesian confidence interval performed better than the others in terms of coverage probability and average length. The proposed approach and the existing approaches are illustrated using examples from data set PM10 level and PM2.5 level in the northern Thailand.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 7.

Tytuł:: Does sex in managerial positions really matter? : differences in work-related feelings and behaviors
Autorzy:: Jaworek, Magdalena
Marek, Tadeusz
Waldemar, Karwowski
Opis:: This study investigated work-related feelings (i.e., dejection, anxiety, anger, and happiness) and work-related behaviors (aggressive, avoidance-passive, and proactive) exhibited by managers and non-managers representing a variety of occupational groups in Poland. This survey-based study included a total of 3019 respondents, consisting of 502 managers and 2517 employees working in non-managerial positions. The results revealed significant differences between groups of managers and non-managers. Managers were happier in their jobs and exhibited more proactive behaviors than non-managers. However, there were no differences in work-related feelings or work-related behaviors between males and females in the total sample of respondents or in the group of employees holding managerial positions.
Dostawca treści:: Repozytorium Uniwersytetu Jagiellońskiego

Inne

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Skocz do pozycji: 8.

Tytuł:: Bayesian SVLEDEJ Model for Detecting Jumps in Logarithmic Growth Rates of One Month Forward Gas Contract Prices
Autorzy:: Kostrzewski, Maciej
Tematy:: jump-diffusion model
stochastic volatility
Bayesian approach
MCMC methods
gas forward prices; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2076470.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: A Bayesian stochastic volatility model with a leverage effect, normal errors and jump component with the double exponential distribution of a jump value is proposed. The ready to use Gibbs sampler is presented, which enables one to conduct statistical inference. In the empirical study, the SVLEDEJ model is applied to model logarithmic growth rates of one month forward gas prices. The results reveal an important role of both jump and stochastic volatility components.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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na półce

Skocz do pozycji: 9.

Tytuł:: Evaluation of the financial condition of companies after the announcement of arrangement bankruptcy: application of the classical and Bayesian logistic regression
Autorzy:: Pawełek, Barbara
Kostrzewska, Jadwiga
Kostrzewski, Maciej
Gałuszka, Krzysztof
Tematy:: company
arrangement bankruptcy
financial condition
Maximum Likelihood Method
Bayesian approach
logistic regression; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1043912.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: The aim of this paper is to present the results of an assessment of the financial condition of companies from the construction industry after the announcement of arrangement bankruptcy, in comparison to the condition of healthy companies. The logistic regression model estimated by means of the maximum likelihood method and the Bayesian approach were used. The first achievement of our study is the assessment of the financial condition of companies from the construction industry after the announcement of bankruptcy. The second achievement is the application of an approach combining the classical and Bayesian logistic regression models to assess the financial condition of companies in the years following the declaration of bankruptcy, and the presentation of the benefits of such a combination. The analysis described in the paper, carried out in most part by means of the ML logistic regression model, was supplemented with information yielded by the application of the Bayesian approach. In particular, the analysis of the shape of the posterior distribution of the repeat bankruptcy probability makes it possible, in some cases, to observe that the financial condition of a company is not clear, despite clear assessments made on the basis of the point estimations.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 10.

Tytuł:: Advantage of Bayesian approach to geotechnical designing
Zalety wnioskowania bayesowskiego w projektowaniu geotechnicznym
Autorzy:: Garbulewski, K
Jablonowski, S.
Rabarijoely, S.
Tematy:: parameter estimation
Bayesian approach
geotechnical designing
application
geotechnical engineering
geotechnical parameter; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie. Wydawnictwo Szkoły Głównej Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/81659.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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