Temat: Scenarios - Prolib Integro

Skocz do pozycji: 1.

Tytuł:: The use of scenario methods to prepare technology development scenarios: theoretical and practical aspects
Wykorzystanie metod scenariuszowych do opracowania scenariuszy rozwoju technologii. Aspekt teoretyczno-praktyczny
Autorzy:: Bielińska-Dusza, E.
Tematy:: scenarios
scenario method
technology
technology development scenarios
scenariusz
metody scenariuszowe
technologia
scenariusz rozwoju technologii; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Sieć Badawcza Łukasiewicz - Instytut Technologii Eksploatacji - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/258376.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: Scenario methods enjoy strong popularity, especially in a situation of changes with discontinuous characteristics. Thanks to their application, we can identify factors of the environment that can have a significant impact on the functioning of companies and regions. The use of scenarios for the analysis of technology development is an expression of openness to changes taking place in the environment. Thanks to them, it is possible to track changes, redefine strategic assumptions, and consider decisions made. This paper presents assumptions of scenario methods and practically uses the environment status scenario method to formulate development scenarios of Intelligent Systems technology in Małopolska.
Metody scenariuszowe cieszą się niesłabnącą popularnością, zwłaszcza w sytuacji zmian o charakterze cech nieciągłych. Dzięki ich zastosowaniu możemy dokonać identyfikacji czynników otoczenia, które mogą mieć istotny wpływ na funkcjonowanie przedsiębiorstw, regionów. Wykorzystywanie scenariuszy do analizy rozwoju technologii jest wyrazem otwartości na zmiany zachodzące w otoczeniu. Dzięki nim możliwe jest śledzenie zmian, redefiniowanie założeń strategicznych i podejmowanych decyzji. W niniejszym artykule zaprezentowano założenia metod scenariuszowych oraz praktycznie wykorzystano metodę scenariuszy stanów otoczenia do formułowania scenariuszy rozwoju technologii systemy inteligentne w Małopolsce.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

Artykuł

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Skocz do pozycji: 2.

Tytuł:: UNCERTAINTY ANALYSES IN ALBPETROL COMPANY
Autorzy:: Mjeda, Blerta
Tematy:: uncertainty
simulation
evaluation
forecasting
scenarios; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie. Katedra Ekonometrii i Statystyki
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/453489.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: Large companies like Albpetrol often deal with big projects. The decision to invest is based on the evaluation of the project profitability. But how certain is the calculated profitability? What if the costs overrun during implementation of the project? What if the reservoir performance is less than estimated? And what if the project completion is delayed? The focus will be on how to make people more aware of the risks and uncertainties in economic evaluations and to show the influence of these uncertainties on the economic indicators. Economic evaluations in the oil industry are carried out with cash flow models. Traditionally, these evaluations are carried out with the estimated (most likely) set of parameters. Usually some parameters, such as project costs or reserves, are varied manually as ‘sensitivities’ to show the potential impact on profitability. In this report, it is proposed to treat the uncertainties by defining stochastic parameters with carefully specified supports based on inputs from discipline experts. In this manner a better insight is gained in the distribution of the project profitability. Some of the key uncertainties in oil and gas investments have been investigated in detail. Thinking in terms of scenarios will help to take better decisions (e.g. about field development concepts) that are robust against a range of scenarios.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 3.

Tytuł:: Scenarios as collaborative tool empowering the policymaking process. The case of MedTech sector in Europe
Autorzy:: Ochojski, Artur
Baron, Marcin
Tematy:: scenarios
policy measures
cooperation
MedTech
clusters
ecosystems
Regional Innovation Systems
S3
sustainable transition
scenarios, policy measures; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/55992853.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: In the paper, we analyse trends that impact the transition of the MedTech clusters in Europe to formulate growth scenarios and propose associated policy measures addressing the MedTech ecosystems while on their way to supporting Sustainable Development Goals. The study directly builds on the lessons learned within the S3martMed alliance, grouping the renowned European cluster organisations in MedTech. The research-oriented objectives of the paper are (i) to present the scenario method as a collaborative, knowledge-enabling tool for clusters and cluster policies and (ii) to identify contemporary scenarios for the MedTech sector willing to add value to transition paths of Regional Innovation Systems. Thus, the presented method and the paper itself are not retrospective but future-oriented to envisage new opportunities for SMEs, business support organisations, RTOs, and the users of MedTech products and services. The paper posits that sustainable ecosystems can be fostered by collaborative achievements of MedTech stakeholders on the condition that they keep on foreseeing the external driving forces to help policymakers to converge them into evidence-based policies.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 4.

Tytuł:: Climate change and its impacts : a critical approach
Autorzy:: Ustrnul, Zbigniew
Wydawca:: Slovenská katolická charita
Opis:: The article presents some key issues concerning contemporary climate change problems. It concerns the reasons of the heated debate about climate change and variability in recent years all over the world. Problems of climatic data inhomogeneity, modeling and future climate scenarios and projections are discussed. The special attention is paid to the uncertainty of future climate projections and its impacts.
Dostawca treści:: Repozytorium Uniwersytetu Jagiellońskiego

Inne

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Skocz do pozycji: 5.

Tytuł:: Zastosowanie adaptacyjnej hurtowni danych do modelowania scenariuszy biznesowych organizacji
Business scenarios modeling with an adaptive data warehouses
Autorzy:: Śmiałkowska, Bożena
Dudek, Tomasz
Tematy:: data warehouse
business scenarios
adaptive mechanisms; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/432149.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: The processes of modeling, design and verification of business scenarios falls into one of the most difficult areas of analytical systems. In order to simplify the implementation of those processes and introduce brand new business scenarios, it is necessary to access credible, integrated, and historical information. The article presents a data warehouse model, which is equipped with an adaptive mechanisms and servo adjustment methods (changing information needs of the organization) that will power the processes of construction, verification and modeling of business scenarios with the necessary data associated with the current and projected strategy of the organization. In addition, the data warehouse will provide analysts (for the process of creating business scenarios) with highly credible and historical data obtained from previous organization activities. This will help them (through simulation) to assess the expected scenarios impact.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 6.

Tytuł:: Scenarios in Regional Planning – Theory and Practice in Poland
Autorzy:: Sołtys, Jacek
Tematy:: forecasting
regional planning
scenarios
strategic planning
voivodeships; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/623679.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: It is important to recognise future conditions in planning because it primes future actions. Scenarios are useful prognostic tools, especially when the social and institutional behaviour plays a crucial role. The aims of the paper are: (1) to indicate the roles and the place of scenarios in the strategic plan building process; (2) to analyse and evaluate the application of scenarios in regional planning in Poland; (3) to transpose the research results on scenarios in local planning for their application in regional planning. There are a few documents in which scenarios are applied: three strategies for regional development and two spatial development plans for regions. The author analysed the scenarios in all of those documents and offered some recommendations transposing the effects of previous research from local to regional planning.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

Artykuł

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Skocz do pozycji: 7.

Tytuł:: Polska 2010 w konfrontacji z jej wizjami z roku 1995
Autorzy:: Kuźnicki, Leszek
Tematy:: Polska
prognozy 2010
Polska
future scenarios 2010; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Polska Akademia Nauk. Komitet Prognoz Polska 2000 Plus PAN
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/465156.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

Artykuł

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Skocz do pozycji: 8.

Tytuł:: Modele rozwoju gospodarczego i procesy planowania na obszarach Natura 2000
Models of Economic Development and Planning Processes in Municipalities with NATURA 2000 Sites
Autorzy:: Borsa, Maciej
Wrana, Krzysztof
Chmielewski, Waldemar
Głogowska, Magdalena
Tematy:: Economic activity models
development scenarios
sustainable development; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2028919.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: The establishment of Natura 2000 is seen often as a potential source of conflict between the protection of natural values and economic development consistent with the aspirations of local communities. Depending on the characteristics of the area-environmental, social, or economic – it is possible to recommend general development models in which economic objectives are combined with nature protection. Such models can be developed on the basis of a set of determinants presented in this study.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

Artykuł

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Skocz do pozycji: 9.

Tytuł:: Frequency and types of indirect requests in Hungarian
Autorzy:: Veres-Guśpiel, Agnieszka
Opis:: The paper presents the frequency and types of illocutionary metonymy in Hungarian directives in various social contexts, taking into account the evoked elements of the request scenarios. The recognized and construed social relations have an impact not only on addressive forms but also on the appearance of other elements such as indirectness and its scalarity, which clearly shows that human language activity reflects the physical and social worlds of the intersubjective context (cf. Verschueren 1999). Indirect directives are based on illocutionary metonymic scenarios (Panther and Thornburg 1998) and by evoking a part of the scenario referring to the core action, they give access to the illocutionary scenario domain. The scalar nature of indirectness (Panther–Thornburg 1997, 1999, 2007) depends on the number of evoked elements and their conceptual distance from the core of the request. As the gathered material shows, social context has an impact not only on indirectness of the request but also its structure and type. The paper, based on a discourse completion test conducted among Hungarian data providers, presents not only the frequency of particular types of illocutionary indirectness in specific social contexts but also analyses the most frequent strategies attested by Hungarian data, taking into consideration their type and place in the illocutionary request scenario and compares the social contexts of indirectness with the social context of direct directives. The analysis of material gathered by a discourse completion test shows a correlation between social context and directness in requests in Hungarian, also highlighting the practices of being indirect by using hints, referring to common background knowledge, and employing conventional indirect requests.
Dostawca treści:: Repozytorium Uniwersytetu Jagiellońskiego

Artykuł

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Skocz do pozycji: 10.

Tytuł:: Representativeness of Offensive Scenarios to Evaluate Perceptual-Cognitive Skills of Water Polo Players
Autorzy:: Casanova, Filipe
Pereira, Ricardo
Canossa, Sofia
Padilha, Maickel
Bagatin, Rafael
Teoldo, Israel
González-Víllora, Sixto
Fernandes, Ricardo J.
Tavares, Fernando
Tematy:: Attacking Game Scenarios
Water Polo
decision-making
reliability; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Szczeciński. Wydawnictwo Naukowe Uniwersytetu Szczecińskiego
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1030822.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: The aim of this study was to trial several attacking offensive sequences as representative for further use in research on the perceptual-cognitive skills of water polo players. Elite water polo coaches were presented with separate test film sequences encompassing 80 structured water polo offensive plays. Each clip was approximately 6 s–7 s long with an inter-clip interval of 5 s–10 s, where a red dot was displayed on-screen at the start of the clip to indicate the area of first appearance of the ball. The order of presentation of the video clips was counterbalanced and randomly determined. The criteria were scored on a 5-point Likert-type scale. From the 80 clips presented, only 56 showed high agreement (W = 1; p < 0.05) and internal consistence reliability between the expert observers (α = 0.980; p < 0.05). Furthermore, a very high reproducibility (Z = 0; p = 1) was obtained between viewing sessions. The results obtained determine that 56 offensive scenarios were representative of the water polo game and as such may be useful in evaluating the perceptual-cognitive skills of the players.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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