Temat: Uncertainty - Prolib Integro

Skocz do pozycji: 1.

Tytuł:: Uncertainty propagation in structural reliability with implicit limit state functions under aleatory and epistemic uncertainties
Autorzy:: Zhou, Shuang
Zhang, Jianguo
You, Lingfei
Zhang, Qingyuan
Tematy:: structural reliability
uncertainty quantiﬁcation
uncertainty propagation
reliability index
uncertainty theory; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Polska Akademia Nauk. Polskie Naukowo-Techniczne Towarzystwo Eksploatacyjne PAN
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1841668.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: Uncertainty propagation plays a pivotal role in structural reliability assessment. This paper introduces a novel uncertainty propagation method for structural reliability under different knowledge stages based on probability theory, uncertainty theory and chance theory. Firstly, a surrogate model combining the uniform design and least-squares method is presented to simulate the implicit limit state function with random and uncertain variables. Then, a novel quantification method based on chance theory is derived herein, to calculate the structural reliability under mixed aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The concepts of chance reliability and chance reliability index (CRI) are defined to show the reliable degree of structure. Besides, the selection principles of uncertainty propagation types and the corresponding reliability estimation methods are given according to the different knowledge stages. The proposed methods are finally applied in a practical structural reliability problem, which illustrates the effectiveness and advantages of the techniques presented in this work.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 2.

Tytuł:: Management in the Time of "Generalized Uncertainty" the Question of Revelvance
Autorzy:: Koźmiński, Andrzej K.
Tematy:: Uncertainty; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Akademia Leona Koźmińskiego w Warszawie
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/417387.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: Uncertainty is a state of mind. Around 1930 at the beginning of the big depression crisis, Keynes predicted that during the next 100 years, the standard of living in the most advanced countries will increase from four to eightfold. In spite of World War II, this overly optimistic prediction (as it seemed at that time) was confirmed in the 80 years since Keynes’s prophecy. In spite of the big crisis of the 1930s and the devastation of World War II, the standard of living in the western world increased four to fivefold.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 3.

Tytuł:: Program komputerowy do wyznaczania niepewności pomiaru
Software for evaluation of the measurement uncertainty
Autorzy:: Wollek, A.
Tematy:: niepewność standardowa
złożona niepewność standardowa
niepewność rozszerzona
combined uncertainty
standard uncertainty
complex uncertainty; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Stowarzyszenie Inżynierów i Techników Mechaników Polskich
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/155816.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: Program „LabMet” służy do opracowywania i gromadzenia wyników pomiarów. Umożliwia on wyznaczenie niepewności dla jednej lub wielu obserwacji w pomiarach bezpośrednich jak: napięcia, prądu, czasu i częstotliwości oraz pomiarze pośrednim – rezystancji. Do zalet programu należą: prosta obsługa, duża odporność na błędy użytkowania, możliwość tworzenia własnej bazy danych mierników, możliwość archiwizacji wyników obliczeń, możliwość rozbudowy programu o następne moduły.
The program „LabMet” is a specialistic program for development and stockpiling of measurement results. It enables evaluating the measurement uncertainty for one as well as many observations, for direct measurements of: voltage, time and frequency, and indirect measurement – of resistance. The program was equipped with a serial decision model, which increased its fault tolerance. A legible graphical interface makes use of the program easy. The program has assisting functions: Help and Tutorial (available along with the main program as the text files in the RTF format). In the paper the way of using the program and its destination are described. Figs. 1 - 4 with individual options of the menu display the main screen of the program. In Fig. 5 an example of the effect of the serial decision-making structure is shown. Fig. 6 contains the computational zoom for the chosen measurement. The presentation of measurement results is depicted in Fig. 7. The Labmet program enables storing results of calculations on a disk as the text files. Moreover, the program cooperates with a system printer enabling the printing of results in the process. They are the advantages of the program. The other advantages are: the simplicity and great fault tolerance of the use, the possibility of creating the own database of meters, the possibility of archiving calculation results, the expendability of the program by next modules.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 4.

Tytuł:: Static and sensitivity analysis of nonlocal nanobeams subject to load and material uncertainties by convex modeling
Autorzy:: Radebe, I. S.
Adali, S.
Tematy:: nanobeams
load uncertainty
material uncertainty
convex modeling
sensitivity; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Polskie Towarzystwo Mechaniki Teoretycznej i Stosowanej
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/281141.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: At the nano-scale, loads acting on a nanobeam and its material properties are likely to be not known precisely, i.e., uncertain. In the present paper, the deflection of a nanobeam subject to load and material uncertainties is studied by convex modeling of the uncertainties. The level of uncertainty is taken to be bounded and the maximum deflection corresponding to the worst-case of loading or material properties is obtained, that is, the uncertainties are determined so as to maximize the deflection. The sensitivity of the deflection to the uncertainty in the material properties is also investigated. Numerical results are given relating the level of uncertainty to maximum deflection.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 5.

Tytuł:: Facing the unknown with hope or fear : on the affective reactions to outcome uncertainty
Autorzy:: Kruglanski, Arie W.
Molinario, Erica
Pierro, Antonio
Ellenberg, Molly
Laurijssen, Maxim
Jaume, Luis C.
Contu, Federico
Wang, Mo
Dragon, Piotr
Szumowska, Ewa
Altungy, Pedro R.
Dostawca treści:: Repozytorium Uniwersytetu Jagiellońskiego

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Skocz do pozycji: 6.

Tytuł:: Model uncertainty: When modeling risk leads to a pretense of knowledge
Autorzy:: Machaj, Mateusz
Tematy:: uncertainty
Frank Knight
model risk
model uncertainty; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Copernicus Center Press
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/55993774.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: The main purpose of the paper is to develop a concept of model uncertainty as opposed to the existing and well-established concept of model risk. Up to date the broad literature on probability not only developed complete probability systems, but also correctly noticed limitations of probability calculus. Despite the acknowledgement of such probability restrictions, drawbacks of modeling are often related to model risk. We present an argument here to distinguish a feature limiting models even further: model uncertainty. The tenets of it already exist in the literature on probability, but were not properly emphasized while the idea of model risk was developed. Our plan it to start with a broad overview of the existing knowledge about probability in order to start with fundamental principles. From them we are deriving a new concept of model uncertainty.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 7.

Tytuł:: Unraveling uncertainty : exploring cognitive closure, information processing, and the multifaceted nature of certainty motivation in the tapestry of beliefs and ideologies
Autorzy:: Czernatowicz-Kukuczka, Aneta
Szumowska, Ewa
Kossowska, Małgorzata
Szwed, Paulina
Opis:: In this paper dedicated to our esteemed colleagues Lucia Mannetti, we will delve into the connection between uncertainty, particularly as it manifests in the need for cognitive closure, and its influence on cognitive functioning, social perspectives, and ideologies. T he paper will commence by providing a definition of uncertainty and then delve into the cognitive coping strategies employed to alleviate its impact. Additionally, we will incorporate empirical findings demonstrating that the experience of uncertainty does not always lead to simplistic and biased information processing. Departing from conventional research paradigms, we will underscore instances where individuals, driven by a desire for certainty, engage in nuanced, contemplative, and receptive information processing. The paper will also examine the strategies employed to navigate uncertainty through the beliefs, worldviews, and ideologies adopted by individuals. We believe this paper contributes to the ongoing discourse on how human psychology interacts with socio-cultural dynamics, a dialogue in which Lucia Mannetti has long been actively engaged.
Dostawca treści:: Repozytorium Uniwersytetu Jagiellońskiego

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Skocz do pozycji: 8.

Tytuł:: Uncertainty of science and decision-making – problems with evidence-based policy
Autorzy:: Malinowski, Grzegorz
Tematy:: science uncertainty
irreducible uncertainty
loser problem
statistical errors
precautionary principle; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1194449.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: The purpose of this article is primarily to introduce the topic of scientific uncertainty to the wider context of economics and management. Scientific uncertainty is one of the manifestations of irreducible uncertainty and reflection on it should enable better decision making. An entity that bases its operation on current scientific research, which depreciates over time and ultimately leads to erroneous decisions, is referred to as the “loser”. The text indicates estimation of potential scale of this problem supplemented by an outline of sociological difficulties identified in the analysis of the process of building scientific statements. The article ends with a sketch of the answer to the question “how to act in the context of scientific uncertainty?”
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 9.

Tytuł:: Quantifying soil hydraulic properties and their uncertainties by modified GLUE method
Autorzy:: Yan, Yifan
Liu, Jianli
Zhang, Jiabao
Zhao, Yongchao
Xiaopeng, Li
Tematy:: soil hydraulic properties
uncertainty
generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation
evaporation experiment; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Agrofizyki PAN
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/973010.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: Nonlinear least squares algorithm is commonly used to fit the evaporation experiment data and to obtain the ‘optimal’ soil hydraulic model parameters. But the major defects of nonlinear least squares algorithm include non-uniqueness of the solution to inverse problems and its inability to quantify uncertainties associated with the simulation model. In this study, it is clarified by applying retention curve and a modified generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation method to model calibration. Results show that nonlinear least squares gives good fits to soil water retention curve and unsaturated water conductivity based on data observed by Wind method. And meanwhile, the application of generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation clearly demonstrates that a much wider range of parameters can fit the observations well. Using the ‘optimal’ solution to predict soil water content and conductivity is very risky. Whereas, 95% confidence interval generated by generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation quantifies well the uncertainty of the observed data. With a decrease of water content, the maximum of nash and sutcliffe value generated by generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation performs better and better than the counterpart of nonlinear least squares. 95% confidence interval quantifies well the uncertainties and provides preliminary sensitivities of parameters.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 10.

Tytuł:: Accuracy analysis of the 2D resistance-to-voltage converters for resistive sensors
Autorzy:: Warsza, Z. L.
Idźkowski, A.
Tematy:: converter
error
uncertainty; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Stowarzyszenie Inżynierów i Techników Mechaników Polskich
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/114306.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: The novelty of this work is the analysis of accuracy measures and its visualization especially for the simultaneous two parameter measurements. The parameters of the resistance-to-voltage converters, i.e. different types of DC circuits with arbitrary variable resistive sensors (of relative resistance increments), and their accuracy measures are discussed. Transfer coefficients, limited error (and also standard uncertainty) as functions of relative increments of resistance are shown in broad range for different types of supply and sensor configuration of the circuit of initial 2D converters.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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