Temat: climate change scenario

Skocz do pozycji: 1.

Tytuł:: Influence of Irrigation Levels on Morphological Attributes and Yield of Tomato under Current and Climate Change Conditions
Autorzy:: Abdoun, Roaya M.
Darwish, Omaima S.
Hashem, Fadl A.
Shehata, Said A.
Tematy:: AquaCrop model
climate change scenario
crop simulation model
irrigation requirements
Solanum Lycopersicon
tomato; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Polskie Towarzystwo Inżynierii Ekologicznej
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/59113585.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: Water shortage consider on of the main threats facing the agriculture, mainly in the Mediterranean area. So that there is a great need to apply new methods to water resource management. The crop models are used to achieve this objective. Tomato is a significant vegetable crop globally and represent an important part of horticultural production with 180 million tons produced on over five million hectares even though few studies have validated the AquaCrop model, especially in Egypt. This study was conducted in a protected cultivation experimental farm, Agricultural Research Center (ARC), Dokki, Giza, Egypt during the winter seasons of 2019/2020 and 2020/2021. Different irrigation levels (IL): 55%, 70%, 85%, 100%, and 115% of evapotranspiration (Eto) were applied on tomato. Plant growth parameters, relative chlorophyll content (SPAD), yield, fruit quality and plant nutrients (NPK) were recorded at both seasons. Also, the aforementioned irrigation levels were used to validate the AquaCrop model on different climate change scenarios on tomato productivity in 2050 and 2100. The findings revealed that the highest plant growth parameters were obtained in 85% and 100% Eto as compared to all treatments at both seasons. In contrast, the 55% of Eto obtained the lowest values of all plant growth parameters. The number of fruits/plant, early yield, and total yield of 100% Eto were ranked secondly. Fruits quality was significantly affected by the tested ILs. The highest values of TSS, firmness and vit C of tomato fruits were obtained by 55% followed by 70% Eto. The lowest proline content was recorded at 115% of Eto in both seasons. The content of proline in plants of 70% Eto ranked secondly after 55% of Eto in both seasons. The results of AquaCrop model (Version 7.0) revealed that the crop productivity decreased by 4% and 33% of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, of the years 2050, 14% and 44% for the same scenarios, respectively, of the year 2100.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 2.

Tytuł:: Impact of the projected climate change on soybean water needs in the Kuyavia region in Poland
Autorzy:: Kasperska-Wołowicz, Wiesława
Rolbiecki, Stanisław
Sadan, Hicran A.
Rolbiecki, Roman
Jagosz, Barbara
Stachowski, Piotr
Liberacki, Daniel
Bolewski, Tymoteusz
Prus, Piotr
Pal-Fam, Ferenc
Tematy:: climate change scenario
crop water needs
evapotranspiration
Glycine max L. Merrill
irrigation
precipitation
protein crops; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Instytut Technologiczno-Przyrodniczy
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2048516.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: According to the SRES A1B climate change scenario, by the end of the 21st century temperature in Poland will increase by 2–4°C, no increase in precipitation totals is predicted. This will rise crop irrigation needs and necessity to develop irrigation systems. Due to increase in temperature and needs of sustainable agriculture development some changes in crop growing structure will occur. An increase interest in high protein crops cultivation has been noted last years and further extension of these acreage is foreseen. Identifying the future water needs of these plants is crucial for planning and implementing sustainable agricultural production. In the study, the impact of projected air temperaturę changes on soybean water needs, one of the most valuable high-protein crops, in 2021-2050 in the Kuyavia region in Poland was analysed. The calculations based on meteorological data collected in 1981-2010 were considered as the reference period. Potential evapotranspiration was adopted as a measure of crop water requirements. The potential evapotranspiration was estimated using the Penman–Monteith method and crop coefficient. Based on these estimations, it was found that in the forecast years the soybean water needs will increase by 5% in the growing period (from 21 April to 10 September), and by 8% in June-August. The highest monthly soybean water needs increase (by 15%) may occur in August. The predicted climate changes and the increase in the arable crops water requirements, may contribute to an increase in the irrigated area in the Kuyavia region and necessity of rational management of water resources.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 3.

Tytuł:: Adapted RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios for invasive Sus scrofa in Mexico
Autorzy:: Halecki, Wiktor
Bedla, Dawid
Lopez, Nuria
Tematy:: biological conservation
climate change scenario
invasive alien specie
species distribution model
ochrona biologiczna
scenariusze zmiany klimatu
inwazyjny gatunek obcy; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Rolniczy im. Hugona Kołłątaja w Krakowie
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/59123349.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: Climate change is a common factor that contributes to the growth or decline of animal populations. The present study, conducted using the Species Distribution Model, highlights the fact that despite the recognized negative impact of wild boar (Sus scrofa) on semi-natural areas and agricultural systems worldwide, the species remains poorly studied. According to projections for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, increased clusters of wild boar abundance are expected to emerge around fragmented species assemblages by 2070. Sus scrofa is an extremely destructive and rapidly spreading invasive species whose movement appears to be facilitated by humans. As a consequence, many endemic plants are threatened with extinction. Biological corridors between fragments with poor conservation status should be linked to priority areas for adequate protection. The creation of preserved landscapes in territories separated from semi-natural ecosystems is recommended. Additionally, these measures can help mitigate the negative impact of S. scrofa on local biodiversity. Continuous monitoring and adaptive management strategies will be crucial for long-term conservation of the affected areas. Environmental protection efforts must prioritize the restoration of natural habitats and the implementation of strict regulations to control the spread of this invasive species. Collaborations between conservation organizations, governments, farmers, and local communities are essential to ensure effective wild boar management and the preservation of arable land and forests. Moreover, public awareness campaigns about the environmental impact of wild boar and the importance of conservation efforts are critical for garnering broader support.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 4.

Tytuł:: Fifth IPCC Assessment Report now out
Autorzy:: Kundzewicz, Z.W.
Tematy:: IPCC zob.Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
climate change
climate change impact
adaptation
mitigation
scenario
projection
climate system
greenhouse
gas emission; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/12000.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is now available. It provides policymakers with an assessment of information on climate change, its impacts and possible response options (adaptation and mitigation). Summaries for policymakers of three reports of IPCC working groups and of the Synthesis Report have now been approved by IPCC plenaries. This present paper reports on the most essential findings in AR5. It briefly informs on the contents of reports of all IPCC working groups. It discusses the physical science findings, therein observed changes (ubiquitous warming, shrinking cryosphere, sea level rise, changes in precipitation and extremes, and biogeochemical cycles). It deals with the drivers of climate change, progress in climate system understanding (evaluation of climate models, quantification of climate system responses), and projections for the future. It reviews impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, including observed changes, key risks, key reasons for concern, sectors and systems, and managing risks and building resilience. Finally, mitigation of climate change is discussed, including greenhouse gas emissions in the past, present and future, and mitigation in sectors. It is hoped that the present article will encourage the readership of this journal to dive into the AR5 report that provides a wealth of useful information.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 5.

Tytuł:: Estimates of current and future climate change in Belarus based on meteorological station data and the EURO-CORDEX-11 dataset
Autorzy:: Danilovich, Irina
Geyer, Beate
Tematy:: climate change
meteorological observations
projections
scenario
air temperature
precipitation
snow
wind; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2014153.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: This study provides an assessment of the current and future changes (in terms of both direction and value) in air temperature, precipitation, snow, wind and their extremes over the territory of Belarus using information from 42 meteorological stations and 92 regional circulation model (RCM) simulations with the highest available horizontal resolution (EUR-11). Three representative concentration pathway scenarios, namely, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, are considered. Results demonstrate that in recent decades, temperature has increased over the territory of Belarus by 1.3°C, with the largest increase occurring during the cold season (2.1-2.3°C). Ensemble scenarios project further increases in air temperature in the current century by +0.5-1.5°C, +2.8°C, and +5.2°C under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, with the largest increase during the cold season under the RCP8.5 scenario. The annual means were observed to increase (insignificantly) by 5-7% and the summer precipitation extremes exhibited a 20-25% growth in recent decades. Moreover, dry conditions have intensified in Belarus, particularly during the growing season. Further increases in precipitation of 10-15% across Belarus are projected to occur in all seasons under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Simulation models predict greater increases in single day rainfall events compared to their multiday precipitation counterparts. The greatest increases in maximal dry period length (by 1-2) are expected to occur in summer and autumn. The models project the general decrease in snowfall across Belarus to continue into the current century, with a reduction in snow precipitation days of 10-30 days. Despite the reduced wind strength (by 0.9-1.0 m·s -1 ) since the 1970s over the territory of Belarus, the ensemble model reveals slight nonsignificant changes in seasonal and annual wind strengths until the end of the century. Significant changes of 1-3 days under varying directions of the wind regime were observed for days with a strong breeze and storms.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 6.

Tytuł:: Forests, forestry and space management in climate change scenarios
Autorzy:: Paschalis-Jakubowicz, P.
Tematy:: forest
forestry
space management
climate change
scenario
rural development
forest resource
forest management; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Instytut Badawczy Leśnictwa
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/38335.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: The necessity to combine forest resource management with regional development is a social requirement. The halting of the forestry marginalization trend is the result, among other things, of the lack of strong links between forest management and local communities’ development, as well as the lack of a holistic approach to the space management principles. The paper analyses the causes and possibilities of solving forest, forestry and regional development problems.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 7.

Tytuł:: Analysis of climate change and its potential influence on energy performance of building and indoor temperatures, part 1: Climate change scenarios
Analiza zmiany klimatu i jego wpływu na charakterystykę energetyczną budynku oraz temperatury wewnętrzne, część 1: Scenariusze zmian klimatu
Autorzy:: Firląg, Szymon
Miszczuk, Artur
Witkowski, Bartosz
Tematy:: zmiana klimatu
parametr zewnętrzny
scenariusz
representative concentration pathways
RCP
temperatura powietrza
wilgotność względna
prędkość wiatru
promieniowanie słoneczne
climate change
outdoor parameter
scenario
air temperature
relative humidity
wind speed
solar radiation; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1852390.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: The subject of this paper is to analyse the climate change and its influence on the energy performance of building and indoor temperatures. The research was made on the example of the city of Kielce, Poland. It was was carried out basing on the Municipal Adaptive Plan for the city of Kielce and climate data from the Ministry of Investment and Development.The predicted, future parameters of the climate were estimated using the tool Weather Shift for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). The analysis took into consideration the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for years 2035 and 2065, representing different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. Scenario RCP4.5represents possible, additional radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m2 in 2100, and RCP8.5 an additional 8.5 W/m2. The calculated parameters included average month values of temperature and relative humidity of outdoor air, wind velocity and solar radiation. The results confirmed the increase of outdoor temperature in the following year. The values of relative humidity do not change significantly for the winter months, while in the summer months decrease is visible. No major changes were spotted in the level of solar radiation or wind speed. Based on the calculated parameters dynamic building modelling was carried out using the TRNSYS software. The methodology and results of the calculations will be presented in the second part of the paper.
Przedmiotem artykułu jest analiza zmiany klimatu oraz jej wpływu na charakterystykę energetyczną budynku i temperaturę wewnętrzną. Badania przeprowadzono na przykładzie miasta Kielce. Ich podstawą był Miejski Plan Adaptacyjny dla miasta Kielce oraz dane klimatyczne z Ministerstwa Inwestycji i Rozwoju. Przewidywane, przyszłe parametry klimatu zostały oszacowane za pomocą narzędzia Weather Shift dla Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). W analizie uwzględniono scenariusze RCP4.5 i RCP8.5 na lata 2035 i 2065, reprezentujące różne trajektorie wzrostu stężenia gazów cieplarnianych. Scenariusz RCP4.5 reprezentuje przewidywane, dodatkowe wymuszenie radiacyjne wynoszące 4,5 W/m2 w 2100 r., a RCP8.5 dodatkowe 8,5 W/m2. Wyznaczone parametry obejmowały średnie miesięczne wartości temperatury i wilgotności względnej powietrza zewnętrznego, prędkości wiatru i wielkości promieniowania słonecznego. Wyniki obliczeń potwierdziły wzrost temperatury zewnętrznej w kolejnych latach. Wartości wilgotności względnej powietrza nie zmieniają się znacząco dla miesięcy zimowych, natomiast w miesiącach letnich widoczny jest ich spadek. Nie zaobserwowano większych zmian w poziomie promieniowania słonecznego i prędkości wiatru. Na podstawie obliczonych parametrów przeprowadzono dynamiczne modelowanie budynku przy użyciu oprogramowania TRNSYS. Metodologia i wyniki obliczeń zostaną przedstawione w drugiej części artykułu.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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