Temat: correction model - Prolib Integro

Skocz do pozycji: 1.

Tytuł:: Impact of climate variability on yield of maize and yam in Cross River State, Nigeria: An autoregressive distributed lag bound approach
Autorzy:: Edet, E. O.
Udoe, P. O.
Isong, I. A.
Abang, S. O.
Ovbiroro, F. O.
Tematy:: Sustainable development
error correction model
food security
yield; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Przedsiębiorstwo Wydawnictw Naukowych Darwin / Scientific Publishing House DARWIN
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1031443.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: The study examined the impact of climate variability on yield of maize and yam in Cross River State, Nigeria. The specific objectives of the study were to determine the long-run and short-run impact of climate variability factors on yields of maize and yam. Data were sourced from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMeT) and Cross River State Ministry of Agriculture spanning from 1990-2016. Data obtained were analyzed using inferential statistics. Precisely, the model was estimated by the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) multiple regression technique, which is within the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound approach and error correction testing framework. Both model-1 (maize yield) and model-2 (yam yield) passed through the conditions of the diagnostics and stability test. The study revealed that climate variables had a significant impact on maize yield both in the long and short-run. Based on the findings, it was concluded that proactive measures should be put in place to aid crop farmers adapt to the prevailing and looming threats of climate variability for the purpose of attaining the State’s food security balance sheet. To sustain this drive, an institutional and infrastructural support system is advocated in order to meet one of the goals of sustainable development agenda of the United Nations. Policy recommendations on how to cushion the impact of climate variability on the prescribed crops have been appropriately cited.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 2.

Tytuł:: The influence of money supply on inflation in Nigeria
Autorzy:: Amassoma, Ditimi
Sunday, Keji
Onyedikachi, Emma-Ebere
Tematy:: Central Bank of Nigeria
Error correction model
Granger causality; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/522429.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: Aim/purpose – The aim of this study is to empirically investigate the influence of money supply on inflation in Nigeria. The study was borne out of the curiosity to reexamine the immediate cause of the alarming rate of inflation in Nigeria which is adversely affecting the general welfare of Nigerian populace. Design/methodology/approach – The study employed co-integration test and error correction approach on annual time series data spanning from 1970 to 2016 to ascertain both the long run and short run dynamics relationship among the variables under consideration. Findings – The results showed that money supply does not considerably influence inflation both in the long and short run possibly because the country is in recession. The error correction model has the correct sign of negative and it is significant meaning that about 21% of the errors are corrected yearly. The Granger causality outcome demonstrates that, there is no causality between money supply and inflation in Nigeria within the study period and vice-versa. Research implications/limitations – The implication of this is often that there are different economic conditions which are key determinant of inflation in Nigeria. The study recommends that the government should diversify the economy, minimise importation by encouraging local production of products and services. The Central Bank of Nigeria should guarantee an exchange rate policy that is essentially determined by the state of the economy and not by speculators being a net importation economy. Also, the Central Bank of Nigeria should look inwards into the current interest rate and see how it can be regulated in such a way that will encourage private and foreign investors to be able to invest in the country. This in turn, successively increases income, infrastructure development and economic growth at large. Originality/value/contribution – This paper has been able to confirm that money supply is not a key factor that trigger up inflation in Nigeria.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 3.

Tytuł:: Wpływ światowych cen ropy naftowej na ceny w Polsce
World oil price impact on prices in Poland
Autorzy:: Baranowski, Paweł
Sztaudynger, Jan Jacek
Tematy:: oil price
producer price
consumer price
Vector Error Correction Model; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/424758.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: The world oil price is an exogenous as well as key component and factor influencing domestic prices (especially transportation). The question is: how the oil price influences producer and consumer prices. We focus on a short- and long-term relationship between the domestic prices and oil price (expressed in Polish zloty). We use Vector Error Correction Models, with cost-based specification, i.e. including additionally wages and euro-zloty exchange rate. The degree of estimated long-term pass-through oil prices to producer and consumer prices is 0,15 and 0,05, respectively. Both producer and consumer prices have comparable size of short-term reaction to an oil price shock, but the producer price reaction is more prolonged.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 4.

Tytuł:: Crude Oil Price and Speculative Activity: A Cointegration Analysis
Autorzy:: Socha, Robert
Wdowiński, Piotr
Tematy:: crude oil price
speculation
futures
cointegration
vector error correction model; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2076245.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: The aim of the study is to discuss the relationship of the crude oil price, speculative activity and fundamental factors. An empirical study was conducted with a VEC model. Two cointegrating vectors were identified. The first vector represents the speculative activity. We argue that the number of short noncommercial positions increases with the crude oil stock and price, decreases with the higher number of long non-commercial positions. A positive trend of crude oil prices may be a signal for traders outside the industry to invest in the oil market, especially as access to information could be limited for them. The second vector represents the crude oil price under the fundamental approach. The results support the hypothesis that the crude oil price is dependent on futures trading. The higher is a number of commercial long positions, the greater is the pressure on crude oil price to increase.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 5.

Tytuł:: Analysis of budget deficits and macroeconomic fundamentals: A VAR-VECM approach
Autorzy:: Epaphra, Manamba
Tematy:: Budget deficit
Macroeconomic variables
Vector Autoregression
Vector Error-Correction Model; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/522020.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: Aim/purpose – This paper examines the relationship between budget deficits and selected macroeconomic variables in Tanzania for the period spanning from 1966 to 2015. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses Vector autoregression (VAR) – Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and variance decomposition techniques. The Johansen’s test is applied to examine the long run relationship among the variables under study. Findings – The Johansen’s test of cointegration indicates that the variables are cointegrated and thus have a long run relationship. The results based on the VAR-VECM estimation show that real GDP and exchange rate have a negative and significant relationship with budget deficit whereas inflation, money supply and lending interest rate have a positive one. Variance decomposition results show that variances in the budget deficits are mostly explained by the real GDP, followed by inflation and real exchange rate. Research implications/limitations – Results are very indicative, but highlight the importance of containing inflation and money supply to check their effects on budget deficits over the short run and long-run periods. Also, policy recommendation calls for fiscal authorities in Tanzania to adopt efficient and effective methods of tax collection and public sector spending. Originality/value/contribution – Tanzania has been experiencing budget deficit since the 1970s and that this budget deficit has been blamed for high indebtedness, inflation and poor investment and growth. The paper contributes to the empirical debate on the causal relationship between budget deficits and macroeconomic variables by employing VAR-VECM and variance decomposition approaches.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 6.

Tytuł:: Wykorzystanie danych lotniczego skaningu laserowego jako osnowy geometrycznej dla korekcji obrazów QuickBird
Use of airborne laser scanning data as the geometric control for correcting QuickBird images
Autorzy:: Wolniewicz, W.
Zaremba, M.
Tematy:: fotogrametria satelitarna
QuickBird
LIDAR
GPS
model korekcyjny
satellite photogrammetry
lidar
correction model; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Stowarzyszenie Geodetów Polskich
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/131022.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: W pracy przedstawiono analizy przydatności techniki LIDAR do ortorektyfikacji zobrazowań QuickBird bez wykorzystania terenowego pomiaru fotopunktów, dla obszaru miasta Ottawa w Kanadzie i terenów leśnych w Prowincji Alberta. Korekcję geometryczną obrazów QuickBird wykonano metodą wielomianową RPF z wykorzystaniem RPC i metody ścisłej. Przedstawiono właściwości modeli korekcyjnych. Do oceny dokładności generowania ortofotomapy wykorzystywano zarówno NMT jak i NMPT pochodzący z danych uzyskanych ze skaningu laserowego. Do ortorektyfikacji oraz oceny dokładności wykorzystano środowisko PCI Ortho Engine. Uzyskano błędy ortorektyfikacji i poziomie 2-3 pikseli dla obszaru miejskiego a na poziomie jednego piksela dla terenów leśnych. Przedmiotem badania był również wpływ liczby fotopunktów na dokładność procesu ortorektyfikacji. Dokładność powstałej ortofotomapy satelitarnej oceniono na podstawie pomiarów GPS. Otrzymane wyniki potwierdzają znaczenie danych pochodzących z wielu źródeł monitorowania powierzchni Ziemi, które coraz powszechniej są wykorzystywane wróżnorodnych zastosowaniach geoinformatycznych. Wykazano praktycznie, iż dane pochodzące ze skaningu laserowego mogą być dobrym źródłem osnowy fotogrametrycznej do korekcji wysokorozdzielczych zobrazowań satelitarnych.
This paper outlines the results of an analysis of the application of LIDAR technology for orthorectification of QuickBird images without using ground control points for the area of the city of Ottawa in Canada as well as for boreal forest areas in the province of Alberta. Geometrical adjustment of QuickBird images was executed using the RPF multinomial method with the use of RPC and the application of the co-linearity condition method. The effects of adjustment models are described in the paper. In order to evaluate the accuracy of the ortho-photo map generation process, both DCM and DSM obtained from laser scanning data were used. The PCI Ortho Engine environment was used as a tool for ortho-adjustment and the evaluation of accuracy. Errors obtained in the ortho-adjustment process were of the order of 2-3 pixels for municipal areas and 1 pixel for forest areas. The influence of a number of ground control points upon the accuracy of ortho-adjustment process was also investigated. The accuracy of the final satellite ortho-photo map was evaluated by applying GSP surveys. The obtained results show the importance of data coming from different Earth monitoring sources, which are used more and more extensively in a variety of different geometric applications. Since VHRR and LIDAR became operational there has been increasing consumer demand for both elevation models and images. As all data is digital from the beginning, data processing is done relatively quickly and is highly automated (mainly only quality control needs operator support), it was demonstrated in practice that the data from laser scanning may constitute an excellent source of photogrammetrical control for the adjustment of very high resolution satellite images. The spectrum of application for precise elevation data and orthophotomaps is much greater than shown here and includes such applications as power line mapping, precision forest management, and open-pit monitoring.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 7.

Tytuł:: Determinants of trade balance in Polish and Czech manufacturing sectors
Autorzy:: Olczyk, Magdalena
Kordalska, Aleksandra
Tematy:: CEE economies
trade balance
international competitiveness
manufacturing
error correction model; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Instytut Badań Gospodarczych
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/22446541.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: Research background: A strong industrial base is essential for achieving long-term sustainable economic growth and export competitiveness. In that sense, manufacturing remains a significant contributor to exports in the CEE countries. How-ever, its role and its influence vary between CEE economies and change over time. Purpose of the article: The main objective of this paper is to compare the determinants of the international competitiveness, measured by the net exports of the manufacturing sectors in the Czech and Polish economies, by using the database of 13 manufacturing sub-sectors in 1995-2011. The authors research the question of how much foreign and domestic demand, the level of labour costs, the level of sector innovation intensity, the level of sector openness to foreign markets as well as sectoral labour productivity influence the changes in trade balance. Methods: Our approach is based on employing an error correction model and SUR model to disaggregated sectoral manufacturing data. Findings & Value added: The results of the analysis conducted show substantial differences in the roles particular variables play in explaining the net exports in individual sectors. For the majority of Polish and Czech manufacturing sub-sectors, generation of positive trade balance is determined by relative demand growth. An increasing labour productivity influences heavily a positive trade balance of Polish goods in majority of sub-sectors, however, a key factor in Czech sub-sectors is decreasing unit labour costs. The results of the analysis indicate mostly a greater impact of the researched factors on net exports in long rather than short term and the better capacity of the Czech economy to correct deviations from the equilibrium.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 8.

Tytuł:: Reaction of the interest rates in Poland to the interest rates changes in the USA and euro zone
Autorzy:: Przekota, Grzegorz
Waściński, Tadeusz
Sobczak, Lidia
Tematy:: interest rates
world markets
cointegration analysis
Error Correction Model (ECM); Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie. Katedra Ekonometrii i Statystyki
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/453096.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: Behavior of interest rates is of key importance for understanding the functioning of an open economy. The simplest models usually assume equal interest rates in individual countries, while the international arbitrage serves as a mechanism of their equalization. In our study an attempt has been made to determine whether and to what extend the interest rates in the Polish market are linked to the USA and the euro zone exchange rates. The analyses have been carried out for rates of different maturity terms, using the integration and co-integration concept.The analyses indicate that differences between the Polish interest rates, and those in the USA and the euro zone have strongly diminished. Cointegration analyses show the existence of a long-term linkages between the domestic and foreign interest rates, in particular with those in the euro zone. The nature of co-integrating relationships was different in the period 2001-2004 as compared with that after 2004, when we see a stronger impact of the euro zone rates than those of the USA. It may be assumed that the Polish accession to the EU had certain influence in the change of the above mentioned relationships.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 9.

Tytuł:: A price transmission analysis of pasteurised liquid milk in South Africa: granger causility approach
Autorzy:: Ramoshaba, Tshegofatso
Belete, Abanet
Hlongwane, Johanes Jan
Tematy:: price transmission
Granger causality
pasteurized liquid milk
Vector Error Correction model; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Przyrodniczy w Poznaniu. Wydawnictwo Uczelniane
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1902627.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: Price transmission studies have become increasingly important in Sub-Saharan Africa over the past decades because of its nature of providing clear and insightful information into these markets. In this study, the price transmission mechanism is described with an agricultural product within the dairy industry, namely pasteurized liquid milk. The aim of this study was to investigate and analyze the nature of the price transmission mechanism for pasteurized liquid milk in South Africa. The study used secondary time series data that covered a sample size of 17 years (2000–2016) for pasteurized liquid milk. The Granger causality test and the Vector Error Correction Model were used for data analysis. The Granger causality tests suggest that a bidirectional causal relationship exists between processor and farmgate prices, and also between retail and processor prices. On the other hand, retail prices were found to have a unidirectional causality effect on farmgate prices. The VECM results showed asymmetric price transmission, implying that retailers and processors react quicker to a price increase than to a price decrease. A price monitoring policy is suggested to be put in place in order to protect the consumers from unfair prices passed on by the retailers.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 10.

Tytuł:: Slowdown or Recession? Forecasts Based on Composite Leading Indicator
Autorzy:: Klúcik, Miroslav
Juriová, Jana
Tematy:: Global economic crisis
recession
composite leading indicator
ARIMAX model
error correction model; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/483289.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: The economy of Slovakia experienced a turning point in the 1st half of 2008 and entered a phase of decline. The negative impacts of the global economic crisis became evident in the 2nd half of 2008 and led into a recession in the 1st quarter of 2009. The composite leading indicator was originally intended for forecasting of business cycle turning points between the decline and growth phases. The aim of this paper is to transform the qualitative information from composite leading indicator into quantitative forecast and verify whether the beginning of recession in Slovakia could have been identified in advance. The ARIMAX and error correction models are used for the composite reference series and GDP forecasts respectively. The final result shows that the composite leading indicator is useful not only for identifying turning points, but also for the prediction of recession phase.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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