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Wyszukujesz frazę "decision analysis" wg kryterium: Temat


Tytuł:
Decision Analysis in Project Management Process
Autorzy:
Kramarenko, S.
Shevtshenko, E.
Karaulova, T.
Wang, Y.
Tematy:
intelligent decision support system
project management
decision analysis
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Wydawca:
Wrocławska Rada Federacji Stowarzyszeń Naukowo-Technicznych
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/971105.pdf  Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:
Very often we complain about the decisions that were previously made. Yet the fact is that the decisions made were based on the knowledge we had before. By now we have gained more knowledge. Therefore the common problem of making decisions is that decisions are not made reliable enough because parameters in risk assessment and supply chain management are underestimated or not robust enough. In this paper we propose a framework that will try to predict future situations collectively and increase the reliability of decision making. Project management is the art of making right decision. Project managers are faced by huge array of choices. Decision analysis is used in strategic planning, operational management, and other areas of business. Decision analysis helps companies to determine optimal exploration and production strategies with uncertainties in cost, prices, and exploration prospects. This paper describes project management steps and the way they can be supported by Intelligent Decision Support system (IDSS). The main parameters assessed are total cost of the projects, time of the project total fulfilment, number of subcontractors, location factors, and etc. IDSS will enable to collect data, propose possible alternative decisions, and provide risk assessment.
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Towards cognitive decision support: A model of behavioural assessment of multi-criteria methods
Autorzy:
Roszkowska, Ewa
Wachowicz, Tomasz
Tematy:
decision support
behavioural decision analysis
preference analysis
AHP
SMART
TOPSIS
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Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Badań Systemowych PAN
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2183430.pdf  Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:
The Negotiation Support Systems often implement multiple criteria decision aiding (MCDA) techniques for building a negotiation scoring system. Those formal models should meet the needs, motivations, expectations, and cognitive abilities of users. In this paper, we try to explore the effects of decision maker’s subjective perception of ease of use, time requirements, interface, preference representation, and efficiency of a particular MCDA method on the choice regarding the future use of this method. The multinomial logistic regression model is built and analysed. The analysis is based on data from online decision making experiments, where three MCDA methods were implemented, i.e. AHP, SMART, and TOPSIS. The study provides several interesting findings, concerning the behavioural aspects of multiple criteria decision aiding in software support systems. Most of the users recommended TOPSIS as the best one for supporting decisions in the future. This is a fast technique, for which we used an attractive graphical interface, suggesting that these factors play a crucial role in the users’ choices. However, the causative regression model showed that the user’s positive experience in using a particular method, i.e. its effectiveness in solving an exemplary numerical case, has the highest impact on the method’s choice for future use. The second most important factor is the adequacy in representing the user’s preferences by this method. We show, however, that the strengths of effects and their significance may vary across the methods. Understanding the decision maker’s evaluations of the MCDA techniques may help build a cognitive negotiation support system that satisfies the user’s expectations.
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Multidimensional Scaling in Economic Research
Wielowymiarowe skalowanie w badaniach ekonomicznych
Autorzy:
Biela, Adam
Tematy:
multidimensional scaling
theory of data decision analysis
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Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/904915.pdf  Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:
A relationship between the theoretical terms and the observational ones, called also a perceptual or observational, is essential for scientific research of empirical type, including social sciences and economic sciences. This relationship cannot be clarified in terms of a complete definition but only by a partial definition. This methodological truth is well known since R. Carnap's works. Later on it was developed in methodology of sciences by the Polish logicians: Przełęcki, Poznański and Kamiński. Multivariable techniques are necessary when one wants to define the relationships between variables in economic and social sciences. However, the results obtained in such analysis are often unsatisfactory because the residual variance is too large. Multidimensional scaling proposes quite a different methodological approach for seeking the relationship between the theoretical terms and the observational ones. This paper aims: (1) to show what kind of methodological proposition is multidimensional scaling; (2) to show what are the possible directions of applying multidimensional scaling to social and economic analysis; (3) to define the multidimensional character of decision analysis.
W badaniach naukowych typu empirycznego (do których należą również nauki społeczne i ekonomiczne) istotne znaczenie ma określenie związku pomiędzy terminami teoretycznymi a terminami empirycznymi. Związku tego nie da się ustalić w postaci definicji zupełnych, lecz tylko i wyłącznie przez definicje cząstkowe. Ta prawda znana jest już od czasu prac R. Carnapa, a została utrwalona i rozwinięta w metodologii nauk przez polskich logików: Przełęckiego, Poznańskiego, Kamińskiego. W określaniu związków pomiędzy analizowanymi zmiennymi w naukach społecznych i ekonomicznych konieczne jest stosowanie technik wielozmiennowych. Wyniki uzyskanych analiz nie są jednak zadowalające z uwagi na ich zbyt wielką wariancję resztową. Nieco inne podejście metodologiczne w poszukiwaniu związku między terminami teoretycznymi i empirycznymi proponuje skalowanie wielowymiarowe. Artykuł omawia założenia metodologiczne skalowania wielowymiarowego, teorię danych С. H. Coombsa (1964) jako podstawę logiczną tego skalowania oraz przydatność tej metody w analizie decyzyjnej. Wskazano, iż skalowanie wielowymiarowe może okazać się przydatne w pierwszych etapach pracy badawczej, eksperckiej, analitycznej czy aplikacyjnej, gdy należy usystematyzować zebrane dane i na tej podstawie przystąpić dopiero do formułowania hipotez, sądów, diagnoz, ocen. Istnieje jeszcze jedna możliwość wykorzystania skalowania wielowymiarowego, a jest nią mianowicie integrowanie różnych opinii oraz ekspertyz w przedmiotowej kwestii.
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Rough set based processing of inconsistent information in decision analysis
Autorzy:
Słowiński, R.
Stefanowski, J.
Greco, S.
Matarazzo, B.
Tematy:
klasyfikacja
kombinatoryka
teoria decyzji
teoria gier
classification
decision analysis
knowledge based systems
multi-criteria decision analysis
rough sets
rule induction
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Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Badań Systemowych PAN
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/206765.pdf  Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:
Inconsistent information is one of main difficulties in the explanation and recommendation tasks of decision analysis. We distinguish two kinds of such information inconsistencies : the first is related to indiscernibility of objects described by attributes defined in nominal or ordinal scales, and the other follows from violation of the dominance principle among attributes defined on preference ordered ordinal or cardinal scales, i.e. among criteria. In this paper we discuss how these two kinds of inconsistencies are handled by a new approach based on the rough sets theory. Combination of this theory with inductive learning techniques leads to generation of decision rules from rough approximations of decision classes. Particular attention is paid to numerical attribute scales and preference-ordered scales of criteria, and their influence on the syntax of induced decision rules.
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Comparison of the valuations of alternatives based on cumulative prospect theory and almost stochastic dominance
Autorzy:
Michalska, E.
Dudzińska-Baryła, R.
Tematy:
cumulative prospect theory
almost stochastic dominance
decision analysis
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Wydawca:
Politechnika Wrocławska. Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Wrocławskiej
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/406467.pdf  Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:
There are commonly accepted and objective decision rules, which are consistent with rationality, for example stochastic dominance rules. But, as can be seen in many research studies in behavioral economics, decision makers do not always act rationally. Rules based on cumulative prospect theory or almost stochastic dominance are relatively new tools which model real choices. Both approaches take into account some behavioral factors. The aim of this paper is to check the consistency of orders of the valuations of random alternatives based on these behavioral rules. The order of the alternatives is generated by a preference relation over the decision set. In this paper, we show that the methodology for creating rankings based on total orders can be used for the preference relations considered, because they enable comparison of all the elements in a set of random alternatives. For almost second degree stochastic dominance, this is possible due to its particular properties, which stochastic dominance does not possess.
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Bibliometric analysis of multiple criteria decision making in agriculture
Autorzy:
Francik, S.
Pedrycz, N.
Knapczyk, A.
Wójcik, A.
Francik, R.
Łapczyńska-Kordon, B.
Tematy:
Multiple Criteria Decision Making
Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis
bibliometric analysis
research trends
agriculture
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Wydawca:
Uniwersytet Warmińsko-Mazurski w Olsztynie
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/298286.pdf  Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:
Development trends (Research Trends) in scientific research on the methods of Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) and Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) in agriculture are analyzed. Established bibliometric techniques are applied. MCDA/MCDM methods are being very intensively developed in recent years, as evidenced by the number of scientific papers published annually in renowned scientific journals indexed in the Web of Science (WoS) database. In the years 1979-2015 a total of 1,355 scientific articles were collected in the database. The number of articles published annually increased rapidly after 2005. Besides, the annual number of citations of the publications is increasing. Research on MCDA/MCDM is conducted in many research areas. In the years 1984-2015 the Web of Science database accumulated 27 scientific publications on MCDA/MCDM in agriculture area. Therefore, it can be concluded that the MCDA/MCDM issues are currently not sufficiently analyzed in relation to agriculture. In the future this subject will probably be further developed, an increasing number of scientists will conduct research on the MCDA/MCDM and the annual number of articles published in the field will increase.
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Incorporating Customer Preference Information into the Forecasting of Service Sales
Autorzy:
Rzepakowski, P.
Tematy:
conjoint analysis
consumer behavior
decision analysis
forecasting
marketing tools
multiple criteria analysis
preference measurement
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Wydawca:
Instytut Łączności - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/309026.pdf  Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:
Customers change their preferences while getting more familiar with services or being motivated to change their buying habits. Different sources of motivation induce customers to change their behavior: an advertisement, a leader in a reference group, satisfaction from services usage and other experiences, but usually those reasons are unknown. Nevertheless, people vary in susceptibility to suggestions and innovations, and also in preference structure change dynamics. Historical information about the preference structure gives additional information about uncertainty in forecasting activity. In this work the conjoint analysis method was used to find customer preference structure and to improve a prediction accuracy of telecommunication services usage. The results have shown that prediction accuracy increases about by one percent point, what results in a 20 percent increase after using proposed algorithm modification.
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Monotonicity of the Selling Price of Information with Risk Aversion in Two Action Decision Problems
Autorzy:
Bakir, Niyazi Onur
Tematy:
decision analysis
value of information
selling price
risk aversion
buying price
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Wydawca:
Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2076547.pdf  Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:
Various approaches have been introduced over the years to evaluate information in the expected utility framework. This paper analyzes the relationship between the degree of risk aversion and the selling price of information in a lottery setting with two actions. We show that the initial decision on the lottery as well as the attitude of the decision maker towards risk as a function of the initial wealth level are critical to characterizing this relationship. When the initial decision is to reject, a non-decreasingly risk averse decision maker asks for a higher selling price as he gets less risk averse. Conversely, when the initial decision is to accept, non-increasingly risk averse decision makers ask a higher selling price as they get more risk averse if information is collected on bounded lotteries. We also show that the assumption of the lower bound for lotteries can be relaxed for the quadratic utility family.
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Wielokryterialny model decyzyjny w wyborze lokalizacji lotniska pasażerskiego w województwie podlaskim
Multi-criteria decision model in selection of the airport location in podlaskie voievodship
Autorzy:
Kobryń, A.
Bakunowicz, K.
Tematy:
wielokryterialna analiza decyzji
lokalizacja lotniska
multi-criteria decision analysis
airport location
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Wydawca:
Fundacja Ekonomistów Środowiska i Zasobów Naturalnych
Powiązania:
https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/96508.pdf  Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:
W ramach poniższego artykułu przeprowadzono uproszczone analizy w celu wyłonienia optymalnej lokalizacji podlaskiego portu lotniczego, a uproszczenie to wynikało głównie z ograniczonego miejsca na przedstawienie tych analiz. Rozpatrzono cztery potencjalne lokalizacje, a wyboru dokonano z użyciem metod wielokryterialnego wspomagania decyzji (MCDA/MCDM), które na świecie od wielu lat są bardzo popularne i pomocne w rozwiązywaniu różnego rodzaju problemów decyzyjnych.
This article presents the use of multi-criteria decision analysis methods of the problem of the choice of the airport location in Podlaskie Voivodeship. The objects of analysis are four potential locations that were considered in the light of economic, spatial, social and environmental criteria. At the outset the desirability of construction of an airport in the voievodship of Podlasie has been justified. Then criteria were defined and analyses were made in order to identify the optimal location. The analyses were performed using very popular methods of multi-criteria decision analysis like AHP, PROMETHEE and TOPSIS.
Dostawca treści:
Biblioteka Nauki
Artykuł
Tytuł:
Multiple criteria analysis of discrete alternatives with a simple preference specification: pairwise-outperformance-based approaches
Raport Badawczy = Research Report ; RB/26/2014
Autorzy:
Granat, Janusz
Makowski, Marek
Ogryczak, Włodzimierz
Wydawca:
Instytut Badań Systemowych. Polska Akademia Nauk
Systems Research Institute. Polish Academy of Sciences
Powiązania:
Raport Badawczy = Research Report
Opis:
Bibliography p. 32-35
35 stron ; 21 cm
Bibliografia s. 32-35
This paper proposes new methods built on combining existing concepts with the developed outperformance aggregations that take into account inter-alternative factors . The methods have been applied for analyzing real-life problems like multiple-criteria analysis of future energy technologies, energy and climate policy and controlling a space robot. Analysis of the first two cases involved large numbers of alternatives, the first case also large number of criteria. Moreover, the analysis was conducted by a large number of stakeholders without experience in analytical methods. This is why, a simple method for interactive preference specification was a precondition for the analysis. A comparison of the developed methods is presented, and experience of using them is summarized.
35 pages ; 21 cm
Dostawca treści:
RCIN - Repozytorium Cyfrowe Instytutów Naukowych
Książka

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