Temat: early warning - Prolib Integro

Skocz do pozycji: 1.

Tytuł:: ŹRÓDŁA RYZYKA MODELI BANKRUCTWA PRZEDSIĘBIORSTW
Sources of risks for corporate bankruptcy models
Autorzy:: Szewc-Rogalska, Alina
Tematy:: early warning model
bankruptcy
risk; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/950632.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: This study aims at identifying sources of risks for corporate bankruptcy models. The applied research method includes the presentation of conditions for the bankruptcy phenomenon to occur in an unstable economy, the analysis of differentiation between the predictive capability of early warning models, and the recognition of risks related to these models. Three major types of risks of corporate bankruptcy models have been distinguished. Firstly, the risks of these models arise from the uncertainty of reliability of financial statements, inter alia, interfering with information, and difficulties in measurement of some financial categories. Secondly, the risk arises from the constraints related to the design of these models, inter alia, being the adopted assumptions, sampling and bankruptcy predictors. Thirdly, the risk of models pertains to the conditions of their practical applications, inter alia, there are cases of their limited comprehensibility, a high volatility of business environment, and the impact of non-conventional bankruptcy factors.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 2.

Tytuł:: Early Warning Models of Banking Crises: VIX and High Profits
Autorzy:: Bańbuła, Piotr
Pietrzak, Marcin
Tematy:: early warning models
financial stability; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Polska Akademia Nauk. Czytelnia Czasopism PAN
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2075289.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: We built a logistic regression Early Warning Models (EWM) for banking crises in a panel of 47 countries based on data from 1970–2014 using candidate variables that cover macro and financial market indicators. We find that VIX, a proxy of global risk-premium, has a strong signalling properties and that low VIX (low price of risk) increases likelihood of crisis. It does not only mean that stability leads to instability, but that this tends to be a global rather than a domestic phenomenon. We also find that particularly high contribution of financial sector to GDP growth often precedes crises, suggesting that such instances are primarily driven by excessive risk taking by financial sector and may not necessarily be sustainable. Other variables that feature prominently include credit and residential prices. Models using multiple variable clearly outperform single variable models, with probability of correct signal extraction exceeding 0.9. Our setting includes country-specific information without using country-specific effects in a regression, which allows for direct application of EWM we obtain to any country, including these that have not experienced a banking crisis
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 3.

Tytuł:: Current status of Early Warning Systems for severe environmental threats in the Polish National Meteorological Service
Autorzy:: Bąkowski, R.
Achimowicz, J.
Mazur, A.
Tematy:: early warning system
hazards
incidents
warning
weather forecast; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/108492.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: The current state of the art and dedicated applications in Early Warning Systems (EWS) of hydrological and meteorological threats are presented herein. Special emphasis is placed on systems based on the post-processing of deterministic numerical weather forecasts in the real-time mode. The importance of climate and weather forecasting models in providing warnings against slow and rapid onset rates e.g. drought and dispersion of atmospheric pollutants respectively, is discussed. It is strongly suggested that there is a need for systems, corresponding to crisis situations in the field of environmental hazards and/or human activities in general, that would be able to provide support and information about further possible scenarios with a projected state of both the environment and the possibility of the negative impact of various factors on the population (human communities). Since there are highly developed plans for the construction of a nuclear power plant in Poland, there is an urgent need to prepare adequate tools that will help avoid crisis situations, or at least to minimize their negative effects. The Early Warning System should be considered one such tool, to be used not only for its economic benefits, but also for pro-social areas of services responsible for the appropriate reaction to crisis events.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 4.

Tytuł:: Multidisciplinary approach to the analysis of the process of perceiving warning signals
Autorzy:: Ćwik, Bogdan
Tematy:: perception of threats
threats
warning
early warning system; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Akademia Sztuki Wojennej
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/576171.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: The article presents the results of research and literature studies in terms of the perception of threats. The author presents the main factors affecting the quality and efficiency of the perception of threats. The paper firstly looks at an integrated model of the perception of the warning signal and, secondly, the complexity and multidiscipline of the approach required by this model, arguing and advocating broadening the field of interest in security sciences to other fields and disciplines.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 5.

Tytuł:: Factors of influence on evacuation behaviour: Survey results from the riverine floodplain communities in Bangladesh
Autorzy:: Mondal, Md Sanaul Haque
Tematy:: evacuation
riverine flood
early warning
Northern Bangladesh; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2054941.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: River floods are distinct because not all of them are destructive and typically affect the people who are living in riverine areas. Therefore, people often refuse to evacuate even when they face imminent danger. River floods are a recurrent phenomenon in Bangladesh. This research aims to analyse the flood evacuation behaviour of riverine people in Bangladesh. A total of 377 households were selected for the questionnaire survey and were interviewed from April 2019 to May 2019. Bivariate and multivariate statistics were employed to analyse riverine people’s evacuation behaviour based on their socio-demographic and economic characteristics. This study found that although 82% of the households had received flood warning messages, only 40% had evacuated. Results from multivariate analysis suggested that the age of household heads, their education, whether they are disabled/chronically ill members, their income, the height of floodwater inside the house, and the type of warning messages they receive appear to be key determinants that influenced their decisions regarding evacuation. Elderly household heads had a lower likelihood to evacuate. The results showed a negative association between early warning messages and evacuation. Household with disabled/ chronically ill member(s) was associated with a higher likelihood of evacuation. Similarly, higher water depth in the home was associated with evacuation. These findings will be helpful for policymakers to enhance awareness of riverine households.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 6.

Tytuł:: The prediction of terrorist threat on the basis of semantic association acquisition and complex network evolution
Autorzy:: Najgebauer, A.
Antkiewicz, R.
Chmielewski, M.
Kasprzak, R.
Tematy:: early warning system
semantic network
ontology
complex network; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Instytut Łączności - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/308191.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: In this paper, which is the continuation of an MCC 2006 Conf. publication by the same group of authors, we propose a concept of early detection of terrorist action preparation activities. Our ideas rely on semantic and complex networks to extract useful information for terrorist threat indication. Presented methods will be used as a core framework for Early Warning System.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 7.

Tytuł:: Leading indicators of sovereign debt and currency crises: Comparative analysis of 2001 and 2018 shocks in Argentina
Autorzy:: Gruszczyński, Marcin
Majczak, Paweł
Tematy:: Argentina
Currency crisis
Early warning signals
Sovereign debt crisis; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/2024098.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: Aim/purpose – This paper investigates the accuracy of leading indicators in the case of the 2001 sovereign default crisis and the 2018 currency turmoil in Argentina.Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, we conducted early warning signals analysis based on a-priori selected variables. For each of the macroeconomic variables, we computed yearly changes and selected the threshold to minimise the noise-to-signal ratio, i.e. the ratio of percentage of false signals in ‘normal’ times to percentage of good signals in a two-year period preceding each of the crises.Findings – The predictive power of indicators differs significantly in various crisis episodes. For the 2001 crisis, the decline in value of bank deposits was the best leading indicator based on the noise-to-signal ratio. For the 2018 currency crisis, the lowest noise-to-signal ratio was observed for the lending-deposit rate ratio.Research implications/limitations – The survey is limited mostly by the data availability and their quality.Originality/value/contribution – This paper gives a complex review of the major early warning indicators in the context of the most recent history of Argentina’s economy. It applies a set of classical leading indicators to two modern cases of financial crises. The paper proposes an original ‘knocking the window’ approach to the presentation of traditional warning concepts in the context of current economic events.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 8.

Tytuł:: Identification of financial ratios applicable in the construction of a prediction model for bankruptcy of wood industry enterprises
Autorzy:: Adamowicz, Krzysztof
Noga, Tomasz
Wydawca:: Committee on Forestry Sciences and Wood Technology of the Polish Academy of Sciences and The Forest Research Institute, Sękocin Stary, Poland
Opis:: At present, many early warning systems (EWS) are available. Most EWSs have been constructed based on data coming from various branches of economy. As a result, the effectiveness of these models in specific sectors of the national economy is frequently insufficient. There are no models dedicated to a specific branch, particularly the wood industry. Based on the Polish homogenous financial data supplied by the wood industry, it was decided to identify respective indexes, which may be used to construct a sector prediction model for bankruptcy in the wood industry. This study presents an analysis of indexes applied in 10 most popular EWSs used in Poland. In the course of the research process, a total of 5 financial ratios (FRs) were selected as best fitting to the investigated branch of economy. These included: profit from sales/balance sheet total, total income/mean annual total assets, operating costs/current liabilities, (operating profit – depreciation)/sales of products and equity capital/total debt.
Dostawca treści:: Repozytorium Centrum Otwartej Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 9.

Tytuł:: Transmission of Disaster Warnings via Control Channels in Cellular Networks
Autorzy:: Aal-Nouman, Mohammed I.
Abdullah, Osamah
Salman, Omar Hussein
Al-Shaikhli, Noor Qusay A.
Tematy:: control channel
disaster reduction
early warning message
mobile network; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Instytut Łączności - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1839317.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: According to United Nations reports, natural disasters caused, worldwide, approximately 100,000 deaths and affected 175 million people each year between 2004 and 2013. To reduce those numbers, countries around the globe have made specific arrangements enabling them to warn the population about imminent disasters, in order to evacuate the area in due time. But providing such warnings in areas where no Internet access is available poses a great challenge. In this paper, we proposed a method to transmit early warning messages via UMTS cellular networks, while relying on spare extensions of control channels (FACH). The results obtained are validate based on their comparison with theoretical considerations and are also benchmarked against the 3GPP standard. The results show that messages may be sent faster than with the use of the 3GPP standard.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 10.

Tytuł:: Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies
Autorzy:: Comelli, Fabio
Tematy:: Early warning systems
currency crises
out-of-sample performance; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Warszawski. Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Zarządzania
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/565717.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: We compare how logit (fixed effects) and probit early warning systems (EWS) predict in-sample and out-of-sample currency crises in emerging markets (EMs). We look at episodes of currency crises that took place in 29 EMs between January 1995 and December 2012. Stronger real GDP growth rates and higher net foreign assets signifi cantly reduce the probability of experiencing a currency crisis, while high levels of credit to the private sector increase it. We find that the logit and probit EWS out-of-sample performances are broadly similar, and that the EWS performance can be very sensitive both to the size of the estimation sample, and to the crisis definition employed. For macroeconomic policy purposes, we conclude that a currency crisis definition identifying more rather than less crisis episodes should be used, even if this may lead to the risk of issuing false alarms.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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