Temat: mortality modelling

Skocz do pozycji: 1.

Tytuł:: The Complex-Number Mortality Model (CNMM) based on orthonormal expansion of membership functions
Autorzy:: Szymański, Andrzej
Rossa, Agnieszka
Tematy:: exponential membership functions
Legendre’s polynomials
mortality modelling
orthonormal system; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1827532.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: The paper deals with a new fuzzy version of the Lee-Carter (LC) mortality model, in which mortality rates as well as parameters of the LC model are treated as triangular fuzzy numbers. As a starting point, the fuzzy Koissi-Shapiro (KS) approach is recalled. Based on this approach, a new fuzzy mortality model - CNMM - is formulated using orthonormal expansions of the inverse exponential membership functions of the model components. The paper includes numerical findings based on a case study with the use of the new mortality model compared to the results obtained with the standard LC model.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 2.

Tytuł:: Diabetes as a risk factor of death in hospitalized COVID-19 patients – an analysis of a National Hospitalization Database from Poland, 2020
Autorzy:: Kania, Michał
Hohendorff, Jerzy
Klupa, Tomasz
Witek, Przemysław
Kamiński, Konrad
Małecki, Maciej
Koń, Beata
Opis:: Introduction: Diabetes is one of the comorbidities associated with poor prognosis in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. In this nationwide retrospective study, we evaluated the risk of in-hospital death attributed to diabetes. Methods: We analyzed data from discharge reports of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in 2020 as submitted to the Polish National Health Fund. Several multivariate logistic regression models were used. In each model, in-hospital death was estimated with explanatory variables. Models were built either on the whole cohorts or cohorts matched with propensity score matching (PSM). The models examined either the main effects of diabetes itself or the interaction of diabetes with other variables. Results: We included 174,621 patients with COVID-19 who were hospitalized in the year 2020. Among them, there were 40,168 diabetic patients (DPs), and the proportion of DPs in this group was higher than in the general population (23.0% vs. 9.5%, p<0.001). In this group of COVID-19 hospitalizations, 17,438 in-hospital deaths were recorded, and the mortality was higher among DPs than non-diabetics (16.3% vs. 8.1%, p<0.001). Multivariate logistic regressions showed that diabetes was a risk factor of death, regardless of sex and age. In the main effect analysis, odds of in-hospital death were higher by 28.3% for DPs than for non-diabetic patients. Similarly, PSM analysis including 101,578 patients, of whom 19,050 had diabetes, showed that the risk of death was higher in DPs regardless of sex with odds higher by 34.9%. The impact of diabetes differed among age groups and was the highest for patients aged 60-69. Conclusions: This nationwide study confirmed that diabetes was an independent risk factor of in-hospital death in the course of COVID-19 infection. However, the relative risk differed across the age groups.
Dostawca treści:: Repozytorium Uniwersytetu Jagiellońskiego

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Skocz do pozycji: 3.

Tytuł:: Territorial variation in mortality from causes amenable to medical care in Poland
Autorzy:: Wróblewska, Wiktoria
Tematy:: amenable mortality
spatial variations
socioeconomic covariates
health care resources
multilevel modelling; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Instytut Medycyny Wsi
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/990859.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: Introduction and objective. This study examines the geographical variation of amenable mortality in Poland, focusing primarily on the role of health care resources at the level of administrative districts and regions, and selected area socioeconomic characteristics as explanatory factors. The concept was used of amenable mortality, based on the assumption that deaths from certain causes should not occur in the presence of timely and effective health care. Materials and method. Standardized death rates (SDR) from causes considered amenable to health care and, separately, for ischaemic heart disease (IHD), were calculated for each of 379 districts (NUTS 4 level) in Poland in 1991–1995 and 2006–2010, using unit mortality data from the National Causes of Death Register. The analytical procedure involved spatial analysis of the distribution of amenable mortality rates, selection of explanatory variables and fitting multilevel regression models using area-level and regional-level characteristics. Results. The results indicate that mortality from conditions which have become amenable to medical intervention has generally decreased in all districts of Poland in the past two decades. Considerable territorial variation in mortality can be observed. Since the 1990s, these differences have been reduced for IHD-related mortality and have increased for amenable mortality. Conclusions. The presented analysis only partly confirms the correlation between variables reflecting the infrastructure of health care resources and the territorial variation in mortality from these two categories of causes of death. Significant correlations with variation in mortality are revealed for the number of primary care physicians (at district level) and the number of specialist practitioners (at regional level). However, after controlling for socioeconomic variables, such as education and low income, the effect of the health care infrastructure-related variables was considerably reduced. The multi-level models also revealed a substantial variation at the regional level, which implies that there are other unobserved contextual influences on amenable mortality at this level.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 4.

Tytuł:: Numerical modelling of POC dynamics in the Southern Baltic under possible future conditions determined by nutrients, light and temperature
Autorzy:: Dzierzbicka-Glowacka, L.
Kulinski, K.
Maciejewska, A.
Jakacki, J.
Pempkowiak, J.
Tematy:: Baltic Sea
detritus
natural mortality
numerical modelling
nutrient
particulate organic carbon
phytoplankton
predator
primary production
temperature
temporal change
zooplankton; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Polska Akademia Nauk. Instytut Oceanologii PAN
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/47783.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: This paper discusses predictions of particulate organic carbon (POC) concentra- tions in the southern Baltic Sea. The study is based on the one-dimensional Particulate Organic Carbon Model (1D POC), described in detail by Dzierzbicka- Głowacka et al. (2010a). The POC concentration is determined as the sum of phytoplankton, zoo- plankton and dead organic matter (detritus) concentrations. Temporal changes in the phytoplankton biomass are caused by primary production, mortality, grazing by zooplankton and sinking. The zooplankton biomass is affected by ingestion, excretion, faecal production, mortality and carnivorous grazing. The changes in the pelagic detritus concentration are determined by the input of dead phytoplankton and zooplankton, the natural mortality of predators, faecal pellets, and sinks – sedimentation, zooplankton grazing and biochemical decomposition. The model simulations were done for selected locations in the southern Baltic Sea (Gdańsk Deep, Bornholm Deep and Gotland Deep) under predicted conditions characterized by changes of temperature, nutrient concentrations and light availability. The results cover the daily, monthly, seasonal and annual POC concentration patterns in the upper water layer. If the assumed trends in light, nutrients and temperature in the southern Baltic correctly predict the conditions in 2050, our calculations indicate that we can expect a two- to three-fold increase in POC concentration in late spring and a shift towards postponed maximum POC concentration. It can also be anticipated that, as a result of the increase in POC, oxygenation of the water layer beneath the halocline will decrease, while the supply of food to organisms at higher trophic levels will increase.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 5.

Tytuł:: Nadmierna umieralność w Polsce podczas pandemii COVID-19 w 2020 roku
Excess mortality in Poland during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020
Autorzy:: Murkowski, Radosław
Tematy:: COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
nadmiarowe zgony
nadmierna umieralność
pandemia
modelowanie szeregów czasowych
excess deaths
excess mortality
pandemic
time series
modelling; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/1373825.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: Pandemia COVID-19 zaczęła się w Chinach w listopadzie 2019 r., a z początkiem 2020 r. rozprzestrzeniła się na większość krajów świata, czego skutkiem był duży wzrost liczby zgonów z powodu tej choroby. Celem badania omawianego w artykule jest oszacowanie i analiza zróżnicowania przestrzennego i czasowego nadmiernej umieralności podczas pandemii COVID-19 w 2020 r. w Polsce i jej regionach. W badaniu uwzględniono takie zmienne, jak płeć, wiek i okres pandemii w korelacji z raportowaną liczbą zgonów z powodu COVID-19 oraz raportowaną liczbą przypadków zakażeń wirusem SARS-CoV-2. Poziom normalnej tygodniowej umieralności obliczono za pomocą metody analizy szeregów czasowych uwzględniającej tygodniowe wahania sezonowe umieralności w ciągu całego roku, na podstawie danych raportowanych przez urzędy stanu cywilnego, a publikowanych przez Główny Urząd Statystyczny. Na podstawie uzyskanych wyników stwierdzono, że w Polsce w 2020 r. wystąpiło o blisko 71 tys. zgonów więcej niż normalnie, z czego ok. 91% dotyczyło osób w wieku 60 lat i więcej. Jednocześnie tylko niespełna 30 tys. nadmiarowych zgonów zostało zarejestrowanych jako zgony z powodu COVID-19, co stanowiło zaledwie ok. 41% wszystkich nadmiarowych zgonów w 2020 r. Poziom nadmiarowych zgonów był najwyższy w 45. tygodniu roku, tj. w okresie, kiedy odnotowano najwięcej przypadków zachorowań na COVID-19, a nie wtedy, kiedy wystąpiło najwięcej zgonów z powodu tej choroby, czyli trzy tygodnie później. Na razie nie jest jednak pewne, czy przyczyną tego stanu rzeczy było niedokładne określanie przyczyn zgonów na początku pandemii, czy to, że nadmierne obciążenie szpitali spowodowało wzrost zgonów z innych przyczyn.
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic began in China in November 2019, and spread to most countries around the world in the early 2020, causing a large increase in deaths. The aim of the study described in this paper is to estimate and analyse the geographical and temporal variations in excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 in Poland and its regions. The study took into consideration variables such as sex, age and the stage of the pandemic in correlation with the reported number of COVID-19 deaths and the reported number of SARS-CoV-2 virus infections. The standard weekly mortality rate in Poland in 2020 was calculated using the method of time series analysis taking into account weekly seasonal fluctuations in the mortality rate throughout the year, indicated with data reported by registry offices and published by Statistics Poland. The obtained results showed that in 2020, there were approximately 71,000 deaths above the standard number in Poland, most of which, i.e. about 91%, were the deaths of people aged 60 and over. Out of them, only less than 30,000 deaths were reported as deaths caused by COVID-19, which was only about 41% of all excess deaths in this period. The number of excess deaths peaked in the 45th week of 2020, which was the time when the largest number of cases of COVID-19 infection were reported, and not when the largest number of deaths from COVID-19 occurred (which was three weeks later). However, it has not been established yet whether the reason for this situation was an imperfect way of determining the causes of deaths at the beginning of the pandemic, or the excessive burden hospitals were subjected to that caused the increase in deaths from other causes.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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