Temat: probability - Prolib Integro

Skocz do pozycji: 1.

Tytuł:: Geneza prawdopodobieństwa
The origin of probability
Autorzy:: Heller, Michał
Tematy:: probability theory
dynamics
noncommutative geometry
free calculus of probability
classical probability
quantum probability; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Copernicus Center Press
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/690886.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: After briefly reviewing classical and quantum aspects of probability, basic concepts of the noncommutative calculus of probability (called also free calculus of probability) and its possible application to model the fundamental level of physics are presented. It is shown that the pair (M, *), where M is a (noncommutative) von Neumann algebra, and a state on it, is both a dynamical object and a probabilistic object. In this way, dynamics and probability can be unified in noncommutative geometry. Some philosophical consequences of such an approach are indicated.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 2.

Tytuł:: Using the Monte Carlo method to create probability maps for search and rescue operations at sea
Autorzy:: Bugajski, G.
Tematy:: Monte Carlo
probability map
rescue operation
shipwrecked
probability distribution
probability model; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Akademia Morska w Szczecinie. Wydawnictwo AMSz
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/135330.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: In this article we proposed a probability map that allows for location of the position of survivors. We used a probability model of a survivor drift to create the map. The model is based on the provisions of IAMSAR containing factors like leeway and wind current. Our proposal of utilizing a probability map diff ers from that shown in the IAMSAR by using other probabilistic methods. We performed analysis of a drifting raft using the Monte Carlo method. The map is closer to reality, since it is asymmetrical and generated by the simulation. However, preparing probability maps might be helpful in SAR action planning.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 3.

Tytuł:: Dutch books and nonclassical probability spaces
Autorzy:: Godziszewski, Michał Tomasz
Wroński, Leszek
Opis:: We investigate how Dutch Book considerations can be conducted in the context of two classes of nonclassical probability spaces used in philosophy of physics. In particular we show that a recent proposal by B. Feintzeig to find so called "generalized probability spaces" which would not be susceptible to a Dutch Book and would not possess a classical extension is doomed to fail. Noting that the particular notion of a nonclassical probability space used by Feintzeig is not the most common employed in philosophy of physics, and that his usage of the "classical" Dutch Book concept is not appropriate in "nonclassical" contexts, we then argue that if we switch to the more frequently used formalism and use the correct notion of a Dutch Book, then all probability spaces are not susceptible to a Dutch Book. We also settle a hypothesis regarding the existence of classical extensions of a class of generalized probability spaces.
Dostawca treści:: Repozytorium Uniwersytetu Jagiellońskiego

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Skocz do pozycji: 4.

Tytuł:: Nieprzemienne rachunki prawdopodobieństwa
Noncommutative calculi of probabilty
Autorzy:: Heller, Michał
Tematy:: theory of probability
noncommutative theory of probability
algebra
noncommutative geometry
quantum mechanics
probability measures; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Copernicus Center Press
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/690918.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: The paper can be regarded as a short and informal introduction to noncommutative calculi of probability. The standard theory of probability is reformulated in the algebraic language. In this form it is readily generalized to that its version which is virtually present in quantum mechanics, and then generalized to the so-called free theory of probability. Noncommutative theory of probability is a pair (M, φ) where M is a von Neumann algebra, and φ a normal state on M which plays the role of a noncommutative probability measure. In the standard (commutative) theory of probability, there is, in principle, one mathematically interesting probability measure, namely the Lebesgue measure, whereas in the noncommutative theories there are many nonequivalent probability measures. Philosophical implications of this fact are briefly discussed.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 5.

Tytuł:: An extended problem to Bertrands paradox
Autorzy:: Ardakani, Mostafa
Wulff, Shaun
Tematy:: probability space
probability theory
problem modeling
random chords; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Zielonogórski. Wydział Matematyki, Informatyki i Ekonometrii
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/729808.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: Bertrand's paradox is a longstanding problem within the classical interpretation of probability theory. The solutions 1/2, 1/3, and 1/4 were proposed using three different approaches to model the problem. In this article, an extended problem, of which Bertrand's paradox is a special case, is proposed and solved. For the special case, it is shown that the corresponding solution is 1/3. Moreover, the reasons of inconsistency are discussed and a proper modeling approach is determined by careful examination of the probability space.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 6.

Tytuł:: Między determinizmem a prawdopodobieństwem – analiza poglądów Jana Łukasiewicza
Autorzy:: Pruski, Paweł
Tematy:: objective probability
logical determinism
philosophical interpretations of probability; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Pedagogiczny im. Komisji Edukacji Narodowej w Krakowie. Instytut Filozofii i Socjologii
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/437333.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: In the contemporary philosophical debate about probability, one of the main problems concerns the relation between objective probability and determinism. Is it possible for objective probability and determinism to co‑exist? This is one of the questions this dispute tries to answer. The scope of discussion is conducted between advocates of a positive answer (compatibilist) and co‑existence opponents (incompatibilist). In the early twentieth century, many logicians also developed topics regarding probability and determinism. One of them was the outstanding Polish logician and philosopher — Jan Łukasiewicz. The general purpose of this paper is to analyse and implement Łukasiewicz’s views regarding determinism and probability in the contemporary field of this problem. I will try to show the relation between his interpretations of these concepts and in consequence his attempt to confront them. As a result of the above analysis, I present some different positions (located in the fields of logic and semantics) in the contemporary discourse about the relation between objective probability and determinism. Moreover, I will present Łukasiewicz’s views about this relation and the consequence of these solutions in the field of logic.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 7.

Tytuł:: On the distribution of the longest success-run in Bernoulli trials
Autorzy:: Kopocinski, Bolesław
Tematy:: Combinatorial probability; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Polskie Towarzystwo Matematyczne
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/748124.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: .
The success-run in a sequence of Bernoulli trials was considered in a large number of papers. W. Feller [4] concentrates his attention on the number of runs what find the principal application in the theory of test of randomness and tests of homogeneity. Many papers deal with random variable Zn introduced by Erdos and Renyi [2] (see also Erdos and Revesz [3]), defined as the length of longest head-run during n coin tossings. They give the asymptotic estimations of that random variable if n tends to infinity. The asymptotic estimation of the distribution of Zn was given by Antonia Foldes [5]. Note that in the theory of extremes in random sequences it is proved that in a sequence of random variables geometrically distributed the maximum linearly standarized do not have a limiting distribution (see [7], p. 26). In [1] the multivariate extension of the problem of the largest cube filled up by successes which may be found in a random lattice in a cube of range n. The problem has very much of practical implications. Our purpose in this paper is to show the recurrent formulas useful in the calculation of the distribution of the random variable Zn and in the method of calculation of its expected value and also in the test of the accuracy of the limiting estimations.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 8.

Tytuł:: Probabilistyczne aspekty zarządzania ryzykiem
Probabilistic aspects of risk management
Autorzy:: Szreder, Mirosław
Tematy:: prawdopodobieństwo
interpretacje prawdopodobieństwa
ryzyko
probability
interpretation of probability
risk; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Uniwersytet Warszawski. Wydawnictwo Naukowe Wydziału Zarządzania
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/525612.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: W opracowaniu tym autor rozważa przesłanki stosowania określonej interpretacji prawdopodobieństwa w zmieniającej się rzeczywistości. Uzasadnia trudności z wykorzystaniem klasycznej i częstościowej (statystycznej) interpretacji w wielu praktycznych sytuacjach niepewności. Zarządzanie ryzykiem wymagać może często odwołania się do ocen ekspertów i stosowania personalistycznej lub – znanej pod inną nazwą – subiektywnej interpretacji prawdopodobieństwa, wywodzącej się z prac L. Savage’a i T. Bayesa. O kontrowersjach związanych z takim rozumieniem prawdopodobieństwa, a także o sposobach agregacji ocen ekspertów traktuje ostatni fragment opracowania.
The author considers reasons for the applications of particular interpretations of probability in dynamic reality. He also justifies difficulties with the use of classical and frequency interpretations in many practical cases. Risk management may require appealing to experts' opinions and implementing the personal (subjective) interpretation of probability developed by T. Bayes and L. Savage. The last part of the paper discusses controversies raised by those interpretations, and presents ways of combining experts' evaluations of probability.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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Skocz do pozycji: 9.

Tytuł:: Między determinizmem a prawdopodobieństwem : analiza poglądów Jana Łukasiewicza
Between determinism and probability : an analysis of Jan Łukasiewicz’s views
Autorzy:: Pruski, Paweł
Opis:: In the contemporary philosophical debate about probability, one of the main problems concerns the relation between objective probability and determinism. Is it possible for objective probability and determinism to co‑exist? This is one of the questions this dispute tries to answer. The scope of discussion is conducted between advocates of a positive answer (compatibilist) and co‑existence opponents (incompatibilist). In the early twentieth century, many logicians also developed topics regarding probability and determinism. One of them was the outstanding Polish logician and philosopher - Jan Łukasiewicz. The general purpose of this paper is to analyse and implement Łukasiewicz’s views regarding determinism and probability in the contemporary field of this problem. I will try to show the relation between his interpretations of these concepts and in consequence his attempt to confront them. As a result of the above analysis, I present some different positions (located in the fields of logic and semantics) in the contemporary discourse about the relation between objective probability and determinism. Moreover, I will present Łukasiewicz’s views about this relation and the consequence of these solutions in the field of logic.
Dostawca treści:: Repozytorium Uniwersytetu Jagiellońskiego

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Skocz do pozycji: 10.

Tytuł:: Ars conjectandi – 300. rocznica publikacji
Ars conjectandi – 300. anniversary of publications
Autorzy:: Ostasiewicz, Walenty
Tematy:: Ars conjectandi
J. Bernoulli
probability
history of probability; Pokaż więcej
Wydawca:: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
Powiązania:: https://bibliotekanauki.pl/articles/433969.pdf Link otwiera się w nowym oknie
Opis:: Within the framework of worldwide celebration of the International Year of Statistics (Statistics 2013) there are organized a number of conferences and workshops. There are also prepared various publications, and one of them is this paper. It contains quite a popular presentation of J. Bernoulli’s work Ars conjectandi, along with a short history of events leading to the publication of this work.
Dostawca treści:: Biblioteka Nauki

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